[ih] When did "32" bits for IP register as "not enough"?

[Dave Taht]

Craig Partridge <craig at tereschau.net> writes:

> A small tweak to Scott's note.
>
> The first "we're going to run out of IP addresses soon" talk was given
> by Mike St Johns at IETF 13 in April 1989. He predicted depletion by
> the year 2000 (pp. 244-248 of the IETF proceedings, which are on-line
> at ietf.org).
>
> Solensky's talk, which Scott lists, was more important because it
> looked at depletion by address class and showed that class B would
> vanish by 1994 -- moving the issue from important but 10 years out to
> basically right on top of the IETF.

Yes, that document (ietf 13 pg 61) - was *convincing*. However the
Toaster-Net netnews thread that I pointed to is a more colorful origin
story. :) I guess I'll cite all three and try to incorporate
multiple comments here. I wasn't planning on writing an epic, though.

>
> Note that in a paper on Internet governance, I argue that address
> depletion concerns were the final straw that led to the Kobe revolt.
> The paper contains many references to key steps in how the IETF
> responded to the concerns
> (https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/7274250).

Regrettably this is not an open access publication and I let my ieee
membership lapse in the past couple years. Thankfully the DOI
is readily available via sci-hub... 10.1109/MAHC.2015.72

I'd not heard of the kobe revolt until now... and the insight into the
tension between the IAB and IETF at the time was very fascinating, and
how fast HEM->SNMP evolved, in those days, also, and also also also the
retrospective on OSI.

thx everyone!

> Craig
>
> On Wed, Feb 13, 2019 at 12:52 PM Scott O. Bradner <sob at sobco.com>
> wrote:
>
>     > On Feb 13, 2019, at 2:08 PM, Dave Taht <dave at taht.net> wrote:
>     > 
>     > 
>     > The 0.0.0.0 thread has been fascinating and I now have more to
>     read
>     > than I ever imagined I would. Moving sideways...
>     > 
>     > So, it seems obvious that address size problems plagued the
>     arpanet
>     > and earlier versions of IP. When did the writing show up on the
>     wall
>     > that the classful design wasn't working, and secondly that 32
>     bits
>     > wasn't enough?
>     
>     from the proceedings of IETF 18
>     (https://www.ietf.org/proceedings/18.pdf)
>     
>     "Sue Hares and Dale Johnson (MERIT)showed the growth of
>     "configured" networks numbers in the NSFnet routing database. This
>     indicates which networks have per- mission to send traffic across
>     the NSFnet. Sue and Dale were instrumental in helping to define
>     and explain these various "network number concepts", and how MERIT
>     used these concepts in establishing its routing database.
>     
>     Using this information, and information from BBN,Frank Solensky
>     (Racal-Interlan), presented a statistical analysis on the rate of
>     utilization of IP address space. He showedthat the growthis
>     exponential. See the accompanyingslides for his projections
>     whenthe IP address space becomedepleted (assuming continued
>     exponential growth)."
>     
>     Frank’s slides start on page 59 of the proceedings
>     
>     Scott
>     
>     
>     
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