[ih] When did "32" bits for IP register as "not enough"?

[Craig Partridge]

A small tweak to Scott's note.

The first "we're going to run out of IP addresses soon" talk was given by
Mike St Johns at IETF 13 in April 1989.  He predicted depletion by the year
2000 (pp. 244-248 of the IETF proceedings, which are on-line at ietf.org).

Solensky's talk, which Scott lists, was more important because it looked at
depletion by address class and showed that class B would vanish by 1994 --
moving the issue from important but 10 years out to basically right on top
of the IETF.

Note that in a paper on Internet governance, I argue that address depletion
concerns were the final straw that led to the Kobe revolt.  The paper
contains many references to key steps in how the IETF responded to the
concerns (https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/7274250).

Craig

On Wed, Feb 13, 2019 at 12:52 PM Scott O. Bradner <sob at sobco.com> wrote:

>
>
> > On Feb 13, 2019, at 2:08 PM, Dave Taht <dave at taht.net> wrote:
> >
> >
> > The 0.0.0.0 thread has been fascinating and I now have more to read
> > than I ever imagined I would. Moving sideways...
> >
> > So, it seems obvious that address size problems plagued the arpanet
> > and earlier versions of IP. When did the writing show up on the wall
> > that the classful design wasn't working, and secondly that 32 bits
> > wasn't enough?
>
> from the proceedings of IETF 18 (https://www.ietf.org/proceedings/18.pdf)
>
> "Sue Hares and Dale Johnson (MERIT)showed the growth of "configured"
> networks numbers in the NSFnet routing database. This indicates which
> networks have per- mission to send traffic across the NSFnet. Sue and Dale
> were instrumental in helping to define and explain these various "network
> number concepts", and how MERIT used these concepts in establishing its
> routing database.
>
> Using this information, and information from BBN,Frank Solensky
> (Racal-Interlan), presented a statistical analysis on the rate of
> utilization of IP address space. He showedthat the growthis exponential.
> See the accompanyingslides for his projections whenthe IP address space
> becomedepleted (assuming continued exponential growth)."
>
> Frank’s slides start on page 59 of the proceedings
>
> Scott
>
>
>
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