[Chapter-delegates] Future Internet Scenarios

[Christopher Wilkinson]

Dear Jon:

Thankyou for this interesting and stimulating document. I have two  
general comments:

1.	The 'quadrants': Actually I think that there are eight quadrants.  
The scenarios lack a third dimension which would capture the scale of  
interactivity between bilateral and multiple communications. To  
illustrate this concept we have recently receive an EIF study which  
focusses on collaborative communication in the future Internet. (I  
have no particular brief for the EIF study and did not participate in  
its preparation, but it does illustrate this concept quite well.)

> http://www.eifonline.org/en/articles/digital-world-in-2025/digital-world-in-2025.cfm


2.	With due respect to the vivid imagination of the authors of the  
ISOC study, I found that it employs too much in-group jargon. In so  
far as I was personally able to de-crypt what was in their minds, I  
also felt that the style of writing would unnecessarily restrict the  
eventual readership and impact of this exercise.

Just a few thoughts. I trust that others will respond to this  
discussion.

Regards,

CW





On 26 Oct 2009, at 16:53, Jon McNerney wrote:

> Dear Colleagues:
>
> Recently, senior staff at the Internet Society engaged in a scenario  
> planning exercise to reveal plausible courses of events that could  
> impact the health of the Internet in the future. The results of the  
> scenario planning exercise were subsequently reviewed with the  
> Internet Society Board of Trustees.
>
> Scenario planning is a methodology used widely in business, and  
> increasingly in other sectors, to allow organizations to anticipate  
> possible futures in an environment of great uncertainty. Scenario  
> planning is neither blue-sky guesswork nor statistical analysis. It  
> is a structured process to help organizations break free from ties  
> to “the official future” and to consider other possibilities they  
> may confront over the longer term.
>
> The result from ISOC’s own scenario planning process is four  
> scenarios – or stories – that are intended to reveal plausible  
> courses of events, not probable ones. While they are imaginative,  
> they are intended to make the organization aware of possibilities  
> that could have an impact.
>
> Scenarios always start from a question about the future. In this  
> case, the focal question for the exercise was: "Will the world  
> embrace or resist the open Internet model?" with a second-level  
> question to narrow the field: "What model will be more successful?  
> Command and control? Or, distributed and decentralized?"
>
> We would like to engage with you in evaluating these stories, which  
> can be found at:
>
> http://www.isoc.org/scenarios
>
> I would very much like to encourage discussion and feedback by all  
> members of the Internet Society through the comment features  
> available on the scenario web pages. You should also feel free to  
> share these scenarios with anyone interested in the future of the  
> Internet.
>
> We will incorporate your input and ideas on the substance of these  
> scenarios in our planning and operational activities. In addition,  
> while incorporating your insights, our Communications team will  
> build, with chapters and members, an external outreach campaign to  
> partners and the public at large that will allow us to continue to  
> evaluate these scenarios on a regular basis, to raise awareness, and  
> to promote courses of action as various parts of these scenarios  
> play out over time.
>
> We look forward to hearing from and working with you on this  
> important initiative to support the health of the Internet.
>
> Best Regards,
>
>  Jon
>
> Jon McNerney
>
> Chief Operating Officer
>
> Internet Society
>
> _______________________________________________
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