[Chapter-delegates] Future Internet Scenarios

[Jon McNerney]

Dear Colleagues:

Recently, senior staff at the Internet Society engaged in a scenario  
planning exercise to reveal plausible courses of events that could  
impact the health of the Internet in the future. The results of the  
scenario planning exercise were subsequently reviewed with the  
Internet Society Board of Trustees.

Scenario planning is a methodology used widely in business, and  
increasingly in other sectors, to allow organizations to anticipate  
possible futures in an environment of great uncertainty. Scenario  
planning is neither blue-sky guesswork nor statistical analysis. It is  
a structured process to help organizations break free from ties to  
“the official future” and to consider other possibilities they may  
confront over the longer term.

The result from ISOC’s own scenario planning process is four scenarios  
– or stories – that are intended to reveal plausible courses of  
events, not probable ones. While they are imaginative, they are  
intended to make the organization aware of possibilities that could  
have an impact.

Scenarios always start from a question about the future. In this case,  
the focal question for the exercise was: "Will the world embrace or  
resist the open Internet model?" with a second-level question to  
narrow the field: "What model will be more successful? Command and  
control? Or, distributed and decentralized?"

We would like to engage with you in evaluating these stories, which  
can be found at:

http://www.isoc.org/scenarios

I would very much like to encourage discussion and feedback by all  
members of the Internet Society through the comment features available  
on the scenario web pages. You should also feel free to share these  
scenarios with anyone interested in the future of the Internet.

We will incorporate your input and ideas on the substance of these  
scenarios in our planning and operational activities. In addition,  
while incorporating your insights, our Communications team will build,  
with chapters and members, an external outreach campaign to partners  
and the public at large that will allow us to continue to evaluate  
these scenarios on a regular basis, to raise awareness, and to promote  
courses of action as various parts of these scenarios play out over  
time.

We look forward to hearing from and working with you on this important  
initiative to support the health of the Internet.

Best Regards,

  Jon

Jon McNerney

Chief Operating Officer

Internet Society
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