[ih] History from 1960s to 2025

[Clem Cole]

Jack, an interesting set of observations.  Examining the history of the
Internet as it now stands tells us something important.   Ultimately,
Metcalfe's law is the driver, and the observation that "*Simple Economics
always beats Sophisticated Design*" suggests that the Chinese New IP is
unlikely to succeed on its own. Please take a look at our shared experience
with IPv6.  There was never an economic argument for switching, and because
of Metcalfe's law, most sites were elsewhere (on IPv4).

At the time, I said that if ISPs offered a meaningful discount to switch to
IPv6 and were led to believe that managing an IPv6-based network might be
cheaper for them, then there was a reason to switch.  But for consumers,
since NAT provides a mechanism that allows users to avoid exhausting IPv4
addresses and the in-place network with its related (desirable) content (to
which they are already connected), continues to grow, why would they switch?

We should not ignore the creation of "New IP."  However, history has shown
that for "New IP" to succeed, developers must create a substantial amount
of attractive content that can only be accessed through it.  To break the
current economics, another force (such as a decree) might be possible. The
authorities in China's government may adopt the view that China is large
enough to build its own network and seek to replace the content its
population receives from the current IPv4 network in a manner that is
meaningful to its people.

On Wed, Dec 17, 2025 at 5:17 PM Jack Haverty via Internet-history <
internet-history at elists.isoc.org> wrote:

> The January/February 2026 issue of Foreign Affairs contains an article
> titled "How China Wins The Future".  Part of it discusses the Internet
> (section titled "Hardwire and Hard Power"), and their initiatives to
> create a replacement for TCP/IP and deploy the new technology of "New
> IP", to solve the perceived problem that today's Internet won't meet the
> needs of the future.
>
> This reminded me of the efforts in the 1960s/70s which created the
> Internet, with TCP serving as the mechanism to solve the problem of how
> to interconnect the numerous different kinds of networks that were
> popping up all over.
>
> While the future is interesting to discuss and debate, this list is
> about History.  I'm curious about what people think about how we got
> from the 1960s to 2026.
>
> Here's my thoughts -- based of course only on my personal experience.
> I'd love to know what I got wrong or missed.
>
> - 1960s: Licklider creates his vision of Intergalactic Network; ARPA
> creates the Information Processing Techniques Office (IPTO), which
> initiates the creation of ARPANET.
>
> - 1970s: ARPANET expanded; additional network mechanisms developed
> (SATNET), need for interconnectivity among disjoint networks motivates
> creation of TCP; ARPANET expands rapidly.
>
> - 1980s: TCP implemented in multiple systems; US DoD declares it as a
> Standard and requires it to be present in military procurements; NBS
> (NIST) creates program to certify implementations; government efforts
> drive existing network (ARPANET) and all host systems to be converted
> from NCP to TCP on 1/1/1983; NSF expands use of Internet into
> non-military environments, and fosters the creation of the first
> self-supporting Internet Service Providers (ISPs).
>
> - 1980s: LANs become pervasive; workstations and PCs emerge as
> alternatives to older mainframe systems; notion of "an internet" becomes
> popular; multiple companies (Novell, Xerox, IBM, Banyan, DEC, ...)
> create their own architectures, incompatible with others.  OSI continues
> to define yet another architecture intended to become a worldwide
> standard; ISPs proliferate.
>
> - 1980s: US government embraces COTS (Commercial Off The Shelf) policy,
> which encourages the development of commercial products for use in the
> TCP environment;  corporate representatives from tech companies begin to
> participate in Internet technology development and standardization
> efforts (IETF); DoD limits funding of custom systems and research in
> favor of using commercial products
>
> - 1990s: Commercial users, and the public, get tired of waiting for the
> internet wars to end, notice that TCP technology is available, can be
> observed to work, and can solve their immediate IT problems; the TCP
> Internet grows rapidly in the general public worldwide; corporations
> deploy private "intranets" using TCP products; all competing internet
> architectures fade into oblivion
>
> - 1990s: next generation protocol (IP V6) developed to address
> limitations of older TCP architecture; draft standard for next
> generation TCP (V6) created in 1998
>
> - 1990s?: technology development efforts abandon the role of
> orchestrating replacement of old technology "in the field" with newer
> versions that remove vulnerabilities or introduce additional
> functionality.  Technologies in the Internet are now developed, and
> "standardized", and then "put on the shelf" for others to find and use
>
> - 2017: full standard for next generation TCP (V6) defined;
> implementations are in use, but many systems continue to use older TCP (V4)
>
> - 2026: after 30+ years, existing Internet has not yet successfully
> supplanted old V4 TCP with slightly newer V6 TCP;  many unsolved issues
> remain in areas of concern, such as spam, cybercrime, identity theft,
> intellectual property protection, "phishing", and others, not addressed
> even by the newer V6 architecture; US, EU, and other governments seem to
> avoid involvement in researching or orchestrating further technology
> development to counter such problems.   Corporate efforts seem to be
> continuing to create competing "silos" of technology, hoping to be the
> winner in the marketplace.
>
> - 2026: China creates initiative to define a "New IP" to meet the needs
> of the future; begins deployment of associated new technology in
> countries which have embraced the initiative.
>
> Your thoughts?
> /Jack Haverty
>
>
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