[ih] Fiction->History

[Craig Partridge]

> On Sep 24, 2015, at 1:41 PM, John Day <jeanjour at comcast.net> wrote:
> 
> "1000 Monkeys at a 1000 typewriters  . . .”  Only half joking, with all of the sci-fi writers out there you would expect a few to come close once in awhile.  ;-)  But future predicting in general has been pretty bad.
> 

If you said said “future predicting” by sci-fi authors, I’d agree.  But my experience with researchers is that that experienced ones do a pretty good job.  That is, they can predict trends and technical stresses some years into the future and make intelligent predictions about the broad style of solution that will result.  On details, they’re rarely right — but the broad picture, they’re often right.  Personally,
having gone back and looked at my predictions over the past 20 years or so, I’m right well over 50% of the time. Side observation - one can be right about the technology and then be completely wrong about which company will take advantage.

Craig

> _______
> internet-history mailing list
> internet-history at postel.org
> http://mailman.postel.org/mailman/listinfo/internet-history
> Contact list-owner at postel.org for assistance.