[Chapter-delegates] First press report of our statement on US split of the net

Sun Aug 9 15:59:56 PDT 2020

No media on Google News noticed what we said, but this just in from China.
As you can see, Google translate works well enough for me to read the
Chinese tech press. It's the complete statement reprinted in a very popular
news source.

If anyone in chapters around the world sees something appropriate and
underreported for netpolicynews.com, please send it here and to
daveb at dslprime.com. (Incidentally, sending good stories to the right
reporters is the right way to frame the public discussion.)

I'd particularly like to hear from India, Nigeria, and Kenya, which are
finally trying to collect some tax from the U.S. giants. So far, the
governments seem to be losing. Should ISOC do something about the web
giants not paying taxes where they make money?

I've pasted in below the first figures on 5G worldwide. China is over 70%,
Korea and probably the U.S. 10%, everywhere else little more than
promotion.  Another little known figure is India's 500 million plus 4G,
made possible by dropping prices to $3-10. (Without government subsidy,
usually wasted.) Africa will soon have more Internet users than the U.S.
has people. (Which is great and requires Internet institutions to change.)

Later
Dave Burstein
@analysisbranch

2020/8/9 22:08
Internet Society statement: The US "Net Net" plan violates the original
concept of the Internet and is very disappointed in this

C114 Communication Network

C114 News August 9 News On August 7, the day the United States launched the
"Net Net" program, the Internet
<http://www.c114.com.cn/keyword/default.asp?key=%BB%A5%C1%AA%CD%F8> Society
(ISOC) issued a statement for the first time.

ISOC expressed deep disappointment in the statement; ISOC believes that the
US government's actions violated the original intention of the Internet,
violated the Internet's global interconnection, openness, and decentralized
nature, and violated the fairness and universality of the technical
architecture.

ISOC pointed out that if this measure spreads further, the ability of the
Internet to bring more extensive cooperation and mutual benefit, global
coverage and economic growth to mankind will be seriously threatened.

*The following is the original translation:*

*Statement of the International Internet Society (ISOC) on the US "Net Net"
Project*

We are very disappointed. The United States is a country that funded the
early development of the Internet, but it is now considering a series of
policies that will fragment the Internet into pieces. An even more worrying
trend is that the government directly intervenes in the Internet in an
attempt to win political points in the short term, regardless of the
long-term damage it causes. The "net net" plan is part of this trend.

The Internet is a globally interconnected network
<http://www.c114.com.cn/keyword/default.asp?key=%CD%F8%C2%E7> , which is
embodied in that the networks are connected to each other based on the
principle of spontaneity and there is no central authority. It is this
architecture that made the Internet. The US "Net Net" plan announced today
challenges the core of this architecture.

Only "clean carriers
<http://www.c114.com.cn/keyword/default.asp?key=%D4%CB%D3%AA%C9%CC> Clean
Carrier" and "clean cables
<http://www.c114.com.cn/keyword/default.asp?key=%B5%E7%C0%C2> Clean Cable
<http://www.c114.com.cn/keyword/default.asp?key=Cable> " plan will force a
lot of network traffic entering third countries, to extend the distance
data must pass through, increasing the potential for manipulation and
monitoring network traffic, increase Internet The risk of interruption has
generally increased the cost of Internet access for everyone.

A government decides how to connect to each other out of political
considerations rather than technical considerations, which goes against the
original idea of the Internet. These interventions will greatly affect the
mobility, resilience and adaptability of the Internet.

If this measure spreads further, the ability of the Internet to bring more
extensive cooperation and mutual benefit, global coverage and economic
growth to mankind will be seriously threatened.

Such a policy will only increase the global momentum towards the
"Splinternet"-a fragmented network, not the Internet that we have built
over the past 40 years and is now more needed than ever.

Original link:
https://www.internetsociety.org/news/statements/2020/internet-society-statement-on-us-clean-network-program/
<https://www.internetsociety.org/news/statements/2020/internet-society-statement-on-u-s-clean-network-program/>
June 2020 H1 5G subscribers 86M (84M-92M)

China had ~65 million 5G phones, Korea 7.5 million, the U.S. 5-6 million,
and the rest of the world perhaps 4 million. Only China and Korea provide
official figures. Chinese press reports suggest over 20 million 5G phones
are shipping in July, but that’s not official.

On July 27, Ken Hyers of Strategy Analytics emailed me that Q2 5G phone
sales in the US were ~2.7 million, down from 3.4 million in Q1. The total
of 6.1 million phones sets a cap on the U.S. 5G, with a certain number in
store inventory and transit. With firm figures for the three largest
deployments, the uncertainty in the figures has become less than in my July
22 writeup.

I have to estimate/guess the numbers in the rest of the world. None of the
European or southeast Asian carriers has released figures. I infer the
number is quite low.

With decent phones selling for US$230 and the price going down, China will
almost certainly meet the yearend 150 million plan. Verizon and others
expect a big boost from the iPhone 5G, so I’m confident in my 210 million
year-end figure. That estimate and 65 pages more of analysis is at
http://analysisbranch.com/2020/06/19/5g-the-facts-and-the-future/

I believe it’s important to “show your work”
<https://themarkup.org/series/show-your-work>That’s crucial in 5G in 2020
because *the most widely reported figures for Q1 almost certainly are
40-50% too high. *The Chinese carriers are reporting about 115 million “5G
contracts” but only about 70 million 5G phones have shipped in China.

5G performance is highly disappointing. While Korea claims over 90%
coverage, Open Signal only connected to 5G 1 in 6 tries. 5G #fail. 85% no
5G in “90% covered” Korea
<https://wirelessone.news/10-r/1762-5g-fail-85-no-5g-in-90-covered-korea> I
believe, but haven’t confirmed, that the problem is that mid-band struggles
getting indoors. Low-band speeds are often slower than 4G, especially at
lower frequencies. See Finally, Data: US 5G slower than Canada’s 4G.
Believe it
<https://wirelessone.news/10-r/1768-finally-data-us-5g-slower-than-canada-s-4g-believe-it>

Latency is about the same as decent 4G. Verizon claims 30 ms. 1 ms latency
is a fantasy outside the lab. Essentially *none* of the highly touted “use
cases” and “new apps” have appreciable takeups.

5G is selling far above almost all predictions except mine because the
phone price in China is little more than 4G. Decent phones go for
US$230-260 in China, with prices falling there and everywhere else. Tens of
millions of people have decided to pay the small premium for a phone that
won’t be obsolete as soon. I would.

I have only indirect data on most of the world. If you want to be accurate,
please think of the range of 84 million to 92 million rather than the 86
million headline figure. In the next few weeks, I expect the phone-makers
to report counts, which will allow me to firm up these estimates.

I’m including a figure of 4 million 5G routers and pucks. Unfortunately, I
can find no primary data. The 4 million is a guess. I have not tried to
divide them by country. Data extremely welcome.

An analyst firm put out a 63 million figure for Q1, almost certainly a
mistake but frequently repeated. The highest plausible estimate of 5G phone
sales in 2019 and the first quarter of 2020 is 45 million and it is
probably a lower than that. (Strategy Analytics reports 24 million for Q1
2020)

I’ve urged them to put out a correction and am not naming them here.

“I make many mistakes,” the Butler said.
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Big_Sleep_(1946_film)> I’m sure I have
some, although I’ve done a great deal of research, daveb at dslprime.com I’ll
issue a correction ASAP.

China: ~65 million.
China’s telcos are reporting ~115 million “5G contracts” but an
authoritative government source (CAICT) reports only 64 million 5G phones
shipped. Since 4G and 5G contracts are the same price, I assume the telcos
are persuading many 4G customers to sign up for a “5G contract.” China
doesn’t need to overstate the numbers; even the lower figure is three times
as many as the rest of the world.
Over 410,000 base stations have been upgraded and 15,000 more are being
done each week.
<https://tech.sina.com.cn/5g/i/2020-07-23/doc-iivhuipn4606354.shtml> China
Mobile expects a total of 600,000 5G cells yearend, covering about
700,000,000 people. All is mid-band.
17 million 5G phones shipped in June, many selling for US$230-260.
30-gigabyte service costs $13-18/month. China is on track to easily meet
the 150 million year-end target. Counterpoint reports 60% of 5G phones in
June were Huawei,
<https://www.counterpointresearch.com/one-three-smartphones-sold-5g-phone-china-q2-2020/>which
has shipped over 20 million 5G phones in China and probably over 30 million
worldwide.
Unofficial sources claim July is far ahead of June.

Korea: ~7.5 million
Korea reported 6.9 million 5G subs at the end of May. The previous few
months were between 500,000 and 600,000, so 7.5 million is a sensible
figure for the end of June. All are mid-band, mostly 100-400 Mbps down.
Open Signal data implies the indoor coverage is terrible. See 5G #fail. 85%
no 5G in “90% covered” Korea
<http://wirelessone.news/10-r/1762-5g-fail-85-no-5g-in-90-covered-korea>

U.S.A. 5-6 million.
US 5G coverage is awful, so I was surprised when Strategy Analytics
reported Samsung sold over 3 million expensive 5G phones in Q1. Most
probably were sold by Verizon, despite Verizon customers only connecting to
5G 0.4% of the time. I infer that high-end Samsung buyers are spending more
for a phone that will not be obsolete in a year or 2. CEO Hans Vestberg has
said people are buying 5G phones even where Verizon does not have 5G
coverage.
So far, almost all AT&T & T-Mobile has been the ridiculous “low-band 5G,”
actually slower than much 4G. See Finally, Data: US 5G slower than Canada’s
4G. Believe it
<http://wirelessone.news/10-r/1768-finally-data-us-5g-slower-than-canada-s-4g-believe-it>
The
companies are making it nearly impossible to separate the 5G at 4G speeds”
from other 5G. I will exclude them if I can. Any reporter or analyst who
doesn’t try to make the distinction should point out that much “5G” is
slower than much “4G.”

Europe ?2 million
No European carrier has enough 5G customers to release a figure. I infer
from that and the limited availability that there are few actual
subscribers. More data welcome.

Gulf ? 1 million
The UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia have some of the most extensive
deployments of 5G. There is little or no public data on the number of
subscribers.

Japan ? 0.3 million
3 carriers are deploying, with NTT DOCOMO shooting for 1 million early next
year.

South and Southeast Asia ?0.3 million
Viettel and almost all the Southeast Asian countries are just starting to
deploy. Jio in India is ready to move rapidly when the government approves.
Look for very rapid growth in India in 2022 and possibly earlier. The
projections of 18 million in 2024 are far too low.

Australia ?0.2 million
Lots of pr, little data

Latin America ?0.1 million
Almost all talk so far. I’m talking with a Brazilian with ambitious plans
for a year or two from now.

Africa ? 0.1 million
MTN in South Africa has recently deployed mid-band, but few subscribers so
far.

Canada ? 0.1 million
Just getting started

Russia, most of Latin America, and almost all of Africa have little more
than pr.

Updates

July 28 Added 4 million 5G fixed wireless routers and pucks, as suggested
by Daryl Schoolar of Omdia. I also added the July reports.

August 3 NTT DOCOMO reached 149K 5G ** Far EasTone in Taiwan “tens of
thousands.” ** Ooredoo Qatar 200,000, more than anyone claims in Europe.

*For estimates of year-end 2020 and through 2025, *
http://analysisbranch.com/2020/06/19/5g-the-facts-and-the-future/

June 2020 H1 5G subscribers 86M (84M-92M)