[Chapter-delegates] What should we do about US new Internet policy?

borka at e5.ijs.si borka at e5.ijs.si
Thu Aug 6 08:41:24 PDT 2020


Hi,

We support both proposals, diplomatic  actions by the board  to prevent 
the split of Internet and the donation to lebanon Chapters.
Mr.Pompeo is coming to Slovenia these days and  the real reason of his 
mission (signing the document based on the new US Internet policy)  was 
covered from the public and the media. We will publish the note to our web 
page.

  Regards,

Borka
Slovenian Chapter


On Thu, 6 Aug 2020, Dave Burstein via Chapter-delegates wrote:

> Folks
> By now, you've probably seen the remarkable new policy from the US, asking
> 30 countries to join the US "clean" crusade with some extraordinary measures
> about limiting "untrusted" countries, starting with China. Full text from US
> State and my writeup below.
> 
> Normally, ISOC is smart to avoid politics like this. But this would be an
> enormous split in the Internet and I think we should address it. It's a
> tough one for ISOC, a DC oriented group that maintains very close relations
> with the US gov. But what I've already heard from some leaders is a strong
> position that I hope becomes consensus. 
> 
> Please, please speak up from other parts of the world, especially India and
> Africa, likely soon affected. ISOC clings to a promise of multistakeholder
> and we need to make sure big decisions reflect the world view, not just the
> mostly US/Europe staff and board. We will have far more impact if we are
> seen as more than a US-Europe group.
> 
> One reason resolving this is crucial is that Chinese are literally 70% of
> the ~86 million 5G users and will continue to dominate for 18-24 months.
> I've also pasted in my writeup with accurate current figures. (Improvements
> and discussion welcome.)
> ------------
> Separately, I support Nadira & Judith's desire to help the Lebanon chapter.
> It's simple for the board to authorize by email say $5,000 for
> administrative expenses, including computers and Internet connections for
> the office or any chapter leader. 
> 
> Some think we shouldn't fund chapters because of how the money might be
> spent. To avoid questions, I suggest a staffer be assigned to rapidly review
> any proposed spending over $500. If any board members are opposed, please
> write immediately to this list and let us discuss any issue.
> CEO Kathy Brown said ISOC should be a bottom-up multi-stakeholder
> organization. Let's work to make that so.
>  Pompeo announces the Internet blockade by Washington + 30 other countries
> 
> 0 Comments
> 
> Mike Pompeo and Xi Jinping US State Dept photo 230 The clear reading of the
> announcement below implies the US wants to create the biggest split in
> Internet history. It goes far beyond the attacks on Huawei & TikTok. The
> U.S. Secretary of State just called for the US and 30 other countries to:
>
>  *  Remove Chinese and other "untrusted apps" from the Android and iPhone
>     store
>  *  Not to allow China Mobile and China Telecom to connect with domestic
>     telecommunications services
>  *  Block Alibaba and other Chinese clouds, even if they agree to store
>     information domestically. (Alibaba is growing fast and a threat to the
>     leaders, Amazon, Microsoft, and Google.)
>  *  Prevent apps from around the world - not just the US - from being
>     installed on Huawei phones, currently the bestselling in the world.
>     Huawei has close to half of the Chinese phone market, meaning that even
>     those apps not blocked by China will be blocked in China by US fiat.
> 
> Pompeo made clear he wants much of the world to go along.  
> 
>       "Momentum for the Clean Network program is growing. More than thirty
> countries and territories are now Clean Countries"
> 
> Everyone reading this has her own opinion on the security and economic
> battle between the US and China. You don't need to hear mine. 
>
>   Announcing the Expansion of the Clean Network to Safeguard
>   America’s Assets
> 
> PRESS STATEMENT
> 
> MICHAEL R. POMPEO, SECRETARY OF STATE
> 
> AUGUST 5, 2020
> 
> Share
> The Clean Network program is the Trump Administration’s comprehensive
> approach to guarding our citizens’ privacy and our companies’ most sensitive
> information from aggressive intrusions by malign actors, such as the Chinese
> Communist Party (CCP). Today, I am announcing the launch of five new lines
> of effort to protect America’s critical telecommunications and technology
> infrastructure.
> 
> These programs are rooted in internationally accepted digital trust
> standards and built upon the 5G Clean Path initiative, announced on April
> 29, 2020, to secure data traveling on 5G networks into U.S. diplomatic
> facilities overseas and within the United States.
> 
> The five new lines of effort for the Clean Network are as follows:
>
>  *  Clean Carrier: To ensure untrusted People’s Republic of China (PRC)
>     carriers are not connected with U.S. telecommunications networks. Such
>     companies pose a danger to U.S. national security and should not provide
>     international telecommunications services to and from the United States.
>  *  Clean Store: To remove untrusted applications from U.S. mobile app
>     stores. PRC apps threaten our privacy, proliferate viruses, and spread
>     propaganda and disinformation. American’s most sensitive personal and
>     business information must be protected on their mobile phones from
>     exploitation and theft for the CCP’s benefit.
>  *  Clean Apps: To prevent untrusted PRC smartphone manufacturers from
>     pre-installing –or otherwise making available for download – trusted
>     apps on their apps store. Huawei, an arm of the PRC surveillance state,
>     is trading on the innovations and reputations of leading U.S. and
>     foreign companies. These companies should remove their apps from
>     Huawei’s app store to ensure they are not partnering with a human rights
>     abuser.
>  *  Clean Cloud: To prevent U.S. citizens’ most sensitive personal
>     information and our businesses’ most valuable intellectual property,
>     including COVID-19 vaccine research, from being stored and processed on
>     cloud-based systems accessible to our foreign adversaries through
>     companies such as Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent.
>  *  Clean Cable: To ensure the undersea cables connecting our country to the
>     global internet are not subverted for intelligence gathering by the PRC
>     at hyper scale. We will also work with foreign partners to ensure that
>     undersea cables around the world aren’t similarly subject to compromise.
> 
> Momentum for the Clean Network program is growing. More than thirty
> countries and territories are now Clean Countries, and many of the world’s
> biggest telecommunications companies are Clean Telcos. All have committed to
> exclusively using trusted vendors in their Clean Networks.
> 
> The United States calls on our allies and partners in government and
> industry around the world to join the growing tide to secure our data from
> the CCP’s surveillance state and other malign entities. Building a Clean
> fortress around our citizens’ data will ensure all of our nations’ security.
>
>                  June 2020 H1 5G subscribers 86M (84M-92M)
> 
> China had ~65 million 5G phones, Korea 7.5 million, the U.S. 5-6 million,
> and the rest of the world perhaps 4 million. Only China and Korea provide
> official figures. Chinese press reports suggest over 20 million 5G phones
> are shipping in July, but that’s not official.
> 
> On July 27, Ken Hyers of Strategy Analytics emailed me that Q2 5G phone
> sales in the US were ~2.7 million, down from 3.4 million in Q1. The total of
> 6.1 million phones sets a cap on the U.S. 5G, with a certain number in store
> inventory and transit. With firm figures for the three largest deployments,
> the uncertainty in the figures has become less than in my July 22 writeup.
> 
> I have to estimate/guess the numbers in the rest of the world. None of the
> European or southeast Asian carriers has released figures. I infer the
> number is quite low.
> 
> With decent phones selling for US$230 and the price going down, China will
> almost certainly meet the yearend 150 million plan. Verizon and others
> expect a big boost from the iPhone 5G, so I’m confident in my 210 million
> year-end figure. That estimate and 65 pages more of analysis is at
> http://analysisbranch.com/2020/06/19/5g-the-facts-and-the-future/
> 
> I believe it’s important to “show your work” That’s crucial in 5G in 2020
> because the most widely reported figures for Q1 almost certainly are 40-50%
> too high. The Chinese carriers are reporting about 115 million “5G
> contracts” but only about 70 million 5G phones have shipped in China.
> 
> 5G performance is highly disappointing. While Korea claims over 90%
> coverage, Open Signal only connected to 5G 1 in 6 tries. 5G #fail. 85% no 5G
> in “90% covered” Korea I believe, but haven’t confirmed, that the problem is
> that mid-band struggles getting indoors. Low-band speeds are often slower
> than 4G, especially at lower frequencies. See Finally, Data: US 5G slower
> than Canada’s 4G. Believe it
> 
> Latency is about the same as decent 4G. Verizon claims 30 ms. 1 ms latency
> is a fantasy outside the lab. Essentially none of the highly touted “use
> cases” and “new apps” have appreciable takeups.
> 
> 5G is selling far above almost all predictions except mine because the phone
> price in China is little more than 4G. Decent phones go for US$230-260 in
> China, with prices falling there and everywhere else. Tens of millions of
> people have decided to pay the small premium for a phone that won’t be
> obsolete as soon. I would.
> 
> I have only indirect data on most of the world. If you want to be accurate,
> please think of the range of 84 million to 92 million rather than the 86
> million headline figure. In the next few weeks, I expect the phone-makers to
> report counts, which will allow me to firm up these estimates.
> 
> I’m including a figure of 4 million 5G routers and pucks. Unfortunately, I
> can find no primary data. The 4 million is a guess. I have not tried to
> divide them by country. Data extremely welcome.
> 
> An analyst firm put out a 63 million figure for Q1, almost certainly a
> mistake but frequently repeated. The highest plausible estimate of 5G phone
> sales in 2019 and the first quarter of 2020 is 45 million and it is probably
> a lower than that. (Strategy Analytics reports 24 million for Q1 2020)
> 
> I’ve urged them to put out a correction and am not naming them here.
> 
> “I make many mistakes,” the Butler said. I’m sure I have some, although I’ve
> done a great deal of research, daveb at dslprime.com I’ll issue a correction
> ASAP.
> 
> China: ~65 million.
> China’s telcos are reporting ~115 million “5G contracts” but an
> authoritative government source (CAICT) reports only 64 million 5G phones
> shipped. Since 4G and 5G contracts are the same price, I assume the telcos
> are persuading many 4G customers to sign up for a “5G contract.” China
> doesn’t need to overstate the numbers; even the lower figure is three times
> as many as the rest of the world.
> Over 410,000 base stations have been upgraded and 15,000 more are being done
> each week. China Mobile expects a total of 600,000 5G cells yearend,
> covering about 700,000,000 people. All is mid-band.
> 17 million 5G phones shipped in June, many selling for US$230-260.
> 30-gigabyte service costs $13-18/month. China is on track to easily meet the
> 150 million year-end target. Counterpoint reports 60% of 5G phones in June
> were Huawei, which has shipped over 20 million 5G phones in China and
> probably over 30 million worldwide.
> Unofficial sources claim July is far ahead of June.
> 
> Korea: ~7.5 million
> Korea reported 6.9 million 5G subs at the end of May. The previous few
> months were between 500,000 and 600,000, so 7.5 million is a sensible figure
> for the end of June. All are mid-band, mostly 100-400 Mbps down. Open Signal
> data implies the indoor coverage is terrible. See 5G #fail. 85% no 5G in
> “90% covered” Korea
> 
> U.S.A. 5-6 million.
> US 5G coverage is awful, so I was surprised when Strategy Analytics reported
> Samsung sold over 3 million expensive 5G phones in Q1. Most probably were
> sold by Verizon, despite Verizon customers only connecting to 5G 0.4% of the
> time. I infer that high-end Samsung buyers are spending more for a phone
> that will not be obsolete in a year or 2. CEO Hans Vestberg has said people
> are buying 5G phones even where Verizon does not have 5G coverage.
> So far, almost all AT&T & T-Mobile has been the ridiculous “low-band 5G,”
> actually slower than much 4G. See Finally, Data: US 5G slower than Canada’s
> 4G. Believe it The companies are making it nearly impossible to separate the
> 5G at 4G speeds” from other 5G. I will exclude them if I can. Any reporter
> or analyst who doesn’t try to make the distinction should point out that
> much “5G” is slower than much “4G.”
> 
> Europe ?2 million
> No European carrier has enough 5G customers to release a figure. I infer
> from that and the limited availability that there are few actual
> subscribers. More data welcome.
> 
> Gulf ? 1 million
> The UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia have some of the most extensive deployments
> of 5G. There is little or no public data on the number of subscribers.
> 
> Japan ? 0.3 million
> 3 carriers are deploying, with NTT DOCOMO shooting for 1 million early next
> year.
> 
> South and Southeast Asia ?0.3 million
> Viettel and almost all the Southeast Asian countries are just starting to
> deploy. Jio in India is ready to move rapidly when the government approves.
> Look for very rapid growth in India in 2022 and possibly earlier. The
> projections of 18 million in 2024 are far too low.
> 
> Australia ?0.2 million
> Lots of pr, little data
> 
> Latin America ?0.1 million
> Almost all talk so far. I’m talking with a Brazilian with ambitious plans
> for a year or two from now.
> 
> Africa ? 0.1 million
> MTN in South Africa has recently deployed mid-band, but few subscribers so
> far.
> 
> Canada ? 0.1 million
> Just getting started
> 
> Russia, most of Latin America, and almost all of Africa have little more
> than pr.
> 
> Updates
> 
> July 28 Added 4 million 5G fixed wireless routers and pucks, as suggested by
> Daryl Schoolar of Omdia. I also added the July reports.
> 
> August 3 NTT DOCOMO reached 149K 5G ** Far EasTone in Taiwan “tens of
> thousands.” ** Ooredoo Qatar 200,000, more than anyone claims in Europe.
> 
> For estimates of year-end 2020 and through
> 2025, http://analysisbranch.com/2020/06/19/5g-the-facts-and-the-future/
> 
> 
> 
>


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