[Chapter-delegates] EU Elections: Quick Note

[Frédéric Donck]

Dear All

Please find herewith a quick analysis of the European Elections which took place yesterday (in the European Union)

General:

Unlike in the past, where the two main political forces in Europe – the European People’s Party (EPP) and the Party of European Socialists (PES/S&D Group) – did largely dominate the landscape, EU citizens have decided to elect a very fragmented Parliament.
The biggest winners seem to be the Liberals, with 100+ seats, and the Greens who significantly gained at the expense of the left-wing (GUE/NGL) and S&D.
Moreover, this weekend’s vote will have an impact on national-level governmental stability, with some countries (Slovakia and Greece) even looking now towards new elections.
This increased uncertainty at European Council level will make the selection of EU top jobs over the coming months more complicated than ever.

Details:

1. European voters literally decided to punish the two largest groups – EPP and S&D – and instead decided to give a chance to some other parties (from Green, to liberal, to far-right and populist).
This is a clear break to the longstanding EPP/S&D dominance of the European Parliament from previous mandates.
In addition, the « likely »  new progressive alliance of ALDE, S&D and Greens— this option is being discussed *now* when I’m writing those lines-  with a total of around 325 MEPs might likely end up the EPP’s domineering position in the legislative arena.

This might have an impact on the way the European Parliament might decide to manage some Internet related dossiers in the future as Greens and ALDE have always showed a great support to Privacy related issues as well as regulation of Internet Giants.

2. Far Right: Populist and nationalist parties gained a lot of seats at these elections, but fewer than some had anticipated. The French National Rally (RN) and the Italian Lega came first in their respective countries, the Brexit Party dominated the vote in the UK and the Flemish far right (Vlaams Belang) made surprising gains in Belgium.

3. Green wave: The Greens are the biggest winners of these elections. With strong showings in Germany, where they came second with 22 seats, France (12), UK (11) and Belgium (3), Greens will be a force capable of influencing policies both in Brussels and increasingly so in national capitals.

4. Brexit

While the results of the right-wing populists, ALDE and Greens may resemble victories, it is worth mentioning that those groups would be hit the hardest by Brexit.
In fact, all Groups stand to lose the UK MEPs after Brexit, except the EPP which does not have a party in the UK.
EPP will also benefit the most from the post-Brexit redistribution of the 27 seats

Finally, nowhere have these elections been more tumultuous than in the UK. The Prime Minister Theresa May resigned on Friday, the morning after the polls were closed.
The Brexit Party (likely to join the right-wing group with Lega) scored a big victory.
However, the combined votes for parties advocating the UK remaining in the EU (Liberal Democrats, Greens and SNP) amount to *more* than the Brexit Party and UKIP together.
This sets a backdrop for the coming weeks where Tories have to pick their new leader, who then needs to decide whether the country goes to a next election, a second Brexit referendum, tries again to pass the Brexit deal with the EU (or to negotiate some changes to the deal or another extension), or just simply crashes out of the EU.
The political picture painted at these elections favors a pro-Brexit Tory leadership, naming the next Prime Minister without an election and overall, more uncertainty over Brexit in general.


Best Regards

Frédéric

Frédéric Donck
Director, European Regional Bureau
Internet Society

Office:
Avenue du Dirigeable 17
1170 Brussels
Belgium

Direct Mail: donck at isoc.org
Office : eubureau at isoc.org

www.internetsociety.org



-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: signature.asc
Type: application/pgp-signature
Size: 833 bytes
Desc: Message signed with OpenPGP
URL: <https://elists.isoc.org/mailman/private/chapter-delegates/attachments/20190527/0830d6d3/attachment.asc>