[Chapter-delegates] The end of IPv4

[Franck Martin]

Franck Martin 
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From: "Fred Baker" <fred at cisco.com> 
To: "Franck Martin" <franck at avonsys.com> 
Cc: chapter-delegates at elists.isoc.org 
Sent: Friday, 15 April, 2011 1:44:23 PM 
Subject: Re: [Chapter-delegates] The end of IPv4 




On Apr 14, 2011, at 12:24 PM, Franck Martin wrote: 


It seems that in a few months APNIC will run dry, while ARIN may carry for another year. 



Define "out". 


http://www.zdnet.com/blog/networking/it-8217s-official-asia-8217s-just-run-out-of-ipv4-addresses/948 



Per APNIC, if you're already a member, you can get one more /22 - 1024 more addresses. Treat them like gold, because you're not getting any more. 


If you're not an APNIC member already, they're out. None left. Nada. Zip. Zero. không ai. 无. な. Not even a little. 


It's not "months", Franck. In the APNIC environs, if you're not moving towards IPv6, you missed something important. As if that wasn't true everywhere else. yes, the announcement from APNIC came just after I wrote these lines, I was not alarmist, you are. 









The USA have been slow in migrating to IPv6 compared to other regions, and this recent issue may not help. 


I beg to differ. 


Look up the OECD trends in broadband and wireless and their implications for ... 



This is a report given to the OECD approximately a year ago, after an in depth survey of what's really happening with IPv6 deployment. Take a look at page 16 (read the whole report, it's very interesting, but right now, look at page 16). It starts in 2001 and tells you annually who has been allocating IPv6 address space. In 2002, when Jun Murai had the good fortune to put some words in the new Premier's mouth, Japan had a huge bump in deployment. In 2005, Tony Hain put an article in the IP Journal , and he, Geoff Huston, John Klensin, and I had a discussion about it, which was also reported. JPNIC passed that along for a more scholarly review, resulting in in a pretty conclusive report in mid-2006. Now, I won't claim that our thoughts had a lot to do with it, but Geoff and Tony's data and some very smart Japanese economists etc made some predictions that had real substance. Whats that blue line sailing above the chart? That's the US, which has had the highest allocation rate of IPv6 address space every year since 2003, and from 2007 on has been deploying like mad. 


We don't yet have it in residential or other edge networks to a high degree. But don't tell me we're not deploying. Your urban legend doesn't match the data. Exactly my point. 

The US MIL requested more IPv6 than anyone else (I'm not sure they are using much). 
http://royal.pingdom.com/2009/03/26/the-us-department-of-defense-has-42-million-billion-billion-billion-ipv6-addresses/ 

So the blue line is fine, but it is not correlated to the size of the economy, nor to the real use of IPv6. 

and to cite the same report: 
1.45% of top 1000 websites have an IPv6 website. Only 0.15% of the top 1 M do. 

http://toolbar.netcraft.com/stats/topsites 
I don't see many non US web sites on this list of top websites. 

nor here: http://www.alexa.com/topsites 

My point is that the USA do not have a pressing need to move to IPv6, Asia Pacific now has one. 
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