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<div class="moz-cite-prefix">Let me take a Devils Advocate position
for a moment, preaching to the converted...</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix"><br>
</div>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 16/07/2020 9:10 am, Dave Burstein
via Chapter-delegates wrote:</div>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:CAAUuzMTp+50QHQR9-be6fojrJmraXMa-pfTuCqZ_=GXaixZkGg@mail.gmail.com">
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<div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:trebuchet
ms,sans-serif">But what happens if air traffic control in
Hamburg (on DT's network) wants to coordinate with ATC in
Lyon, on Orange/FT. There's no way today to guarantee
performance across networks, although the IEFT has long had
solutions. The same problem occurs with multi-player Pokemon
Go when one player is on DT and the second on Vodafone.</div>
<div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:trebuchet
ms,sans-serif"><br>
</div>
<div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:trebuchet
ms,sans-serif">To solve that problem, the telcos want to
(gradually) dump TCP-IP in favor of a tightly controlled
"deterministic network." TCP-IP has proven its ability to
adapt and scale. I think the efficiency claims will not be
realized and the cost much higher. In theoretical
discussions in standards, the new system works perfectly. I
live in the real world. <br>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</blockquote>
<p>Dave - are we forgetting the impact of the general public user,
and application deployers, and 'the market' inertia in all this? <br>
</p>
<p>We - and 'they' - used to have such a deterministic network
system. It was called ATM. Before that we also had a deterministic
network system - clear channel SDH/SONET transmission services.
For a while there were parallel global and national ATM backbones
and IP backbones. There were IP-over-ATM backbones which were
supposed to provide determinism and time-base slicing. There were
'ATM Switched Virtual Circuits' that never actually switched in
practice. Over time the Internet and IP became dominant. Why?</p>
<p> ATM commercial services didn't die off because they were
inherently technically inferior (although they were), they died
off due to lack of customer demand, which lead to a lack of
revenue. ATM gear was more expensive, services were more expensive
and inflexible, and actual 'deterministic' services even more so -
the user-base voted with their feet and wallets and ignored
'proper deterministic' expensive networks in favour of those
good-enough-in-practice more flexible cheaper systems. It didn't
matter how 'superior' it was touted, nobody wants to expend big
funds building infrastructure that has no customer demand.<br>
</p>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:CAAUuzMTp+50QHQR9-be6fojrJmraXMa-pfTuCqZ_=GXaixZkGg@mail.gmail.com">
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<div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:trebuchet
ms,sans-serif"> TCP-IP will gradually be replaced by an
alternative that is designed for QoS/network slicing because
the carriers believe they will be paid for SLAs and
guaranteed performance. This is desired by security agencies
and the carriers think they can sell it to others. They
smell $billions and intend to push it through. Like
everything else in telecom, the Chinese will be the first to
a large build, but Telefonica, DT and others intend to move
forward.</div>
<div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:trebuchet
ms,sans-serif"><br>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:"trebuchet
ms",sans-serif">
It will take at least 3 years for this to become practical
to deploy and more likely 5-7. </div>
</div>
</div>
</blockquote>
<p>There is now an enormous installed base of IP-based applications
and systems, developers who understand how to build applications
that communicate with IP, investment in codebase that relies on
sockets, ports, IP addresses and name resolution - heck, we
haven't been able to replace IPv4 with IPv6 in *two decades*, and
thats without any concerted pushback. For anything to be deployed
inside a decade, it will need to be standardised, ratified, built
into routers, debugged, gather commercial acceptance, AND have
some form of translation/convergence shim invented so that three
decades of operating systems, services, browsers, chat apps etc
don't need to be thrown out the window. Whatever comes out it
won't 'kill off TCP/IP' until a decade after it is built into
native Windows, Linux, IOS and Android drivers AND all the
applications people use today. Otherwise, whatever 'they' invent
will end up being an expensive set of deterministic
switched-virtual-circuit layer1/layer2 network, on which 'the
market' and customers will run TCP/IP as an overlay, because
nobody in user-land will want to re-invent the application wheels,
or the entire ecosystem that it supports.</p>
<p>Carriers might believe they will be paid extra $$$ and $billions
for SLAs and guaranteed performance, but beliefs don't make it so
- we can point to decades of actual measured customer behaviour,
from the failure of ATM to why so few customers ever buy 'business
grade' services even when they are available, to why so many
people take slower roads to bypass a highway with tolls.<br>
</p>
<p>One thing I know - we won't 'win' if we frame our arguments as
'defending TCP/IP and the Internet'. The moment we talk of
'defending' something, others will wonder why we're trying so hard
to defend something if it is so obviously superior. We won't 'win'
if we focus on better technicals, or more open development
methods. We won't 'win' if we treat it as a adversarial 'fight'.<br>
</p>
<p>The best argument I've found against the 'telehealth needs
guaranteed QOS networks' is to quietly ask the person whether,
even if such a network existed, they would be happy going under
the anaesthetic on the table knowing the surgeon was on the other
side of the country, given how frequently their mobile phone drops
out and how often she reads about networks being taken offline by
trench-diggers - and how comfortable she thought health insurers
and courts would be with a 'QOS guarantee certificate' from the
carrier. And how comfortable the network owners will be if
telehealth is the only lonely use-case for the expensive shiny
network, because everything else that doesn't need the QOS
guarantees is on a cheaper parallel competing network.<br>
</p>
<p>We *may* head it off, if we can highlight that all history shows
that proper determinism is uncommercial - the extra $billions they
dream of isn't there - even if they build something out of non-IP,
unless it is priced at Internet commercials or cheaper, it is
likely to be an expensive, embarrassing white-elephant with no
customers.</p>
<p> We *may* prevail if we approach it as 'helping them to avoid
their embarrassment'. Risk of embarrassing/noncommercial expensive
failure is a better motivator for no-progress and for programs
being quietly abandoned than the prospect of a fight.</p>
<p>Best regards,</p>
<p>Paul.<br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<blockquote type="cite"
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<div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:"trebuchet
ms",sans-serif">But if we think this is not a desirable
long term future for the net, we have to be very public and
make the issues clear. Olaf's paper is sensible but oblique,
and our beliefs are invisible in places like Focus Group
2030 and the other places - especially 3GPP & ETSI -
where decisions are being made. (I sometimes speak to it,
but have to earn a living and haven't had much time.)</div>
<div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:"trebuchet
ms",sans-serif"><br>
</div>
<div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:"trebuchet
ms",sans-serif">Accurate information is not enough to
win a political battle with literally $trillions of
companies and their governments are on the other side.</div>
<div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:"trebuchet
ms",sans-serif"><br>
</div>
<div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:"trebuchet
ms",sans-serif">If this matters, we can and must do
much more.</div>
<br>
</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<br>
<div class="gmail_quote">
<div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Wed, Jul 15, 2020 at 9:29
AM sivasubramanian muthusamy <<a
href="mailto:6.internet@gmail.com" moz-do-not-send="true">6.internet@gmail.com</a>>
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px
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<div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Thu, Apr 30, 2020
at 4:46 AM Dave Burstein via Chapter-delegates <<a
href="mailto:chapter-delegates@elists.isoc.org"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">chapter-delegates@elists.isoc.org</a>>
wrote:<br>
</div>
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<div style="font-family:"trebuchet
ms",sans-serif">Olaf</div>
<div style="font-family:"trebuchet
ms",sans-serif"><br>
</div>
<div style="font-family:"trebuchet
ms",sans-serif">We agree on the main issues
here, but we need to do a much more effective job
to win here. </div>
<div style="font-family:"trebuchet
ms",sans-serif"><br>
</div>
<div style="font-family:"trebuchet
ms",sans-serif">tl/dr unless the issues are
important to you.</div>
<div style="font-family:"trebuchet
ms",sans-serif"><br>
</div>
<div style="font-family:"trebuchet
ms",sans-serif"> I learned how to win policy
issues through 20 years watching silver tongues
like AT&T's legendary lobbyist Jim Cicconi.
They approach the battle by researching carefully
"what arguments will persuade the people we need
to reach and they will believe." On telco control,
which is the issue here, we have great pocketbook
issues you've noted in your paper. Complexity and
control drive up costs enormously. That's a great
reason to stick with IP - it does a brilliant job
adapting. Bob and Vint work is extraordinary, not
just historic.</div>
<div style="font-family:"trebuchet
ms",sans-serif"><br>
</div>
<div style="font-family:"trebuchet
ms",sans-serif"> Something like this needs
support from far more people than might be
persuaded by <u>anything</u> we might say about
governance. <span
style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif">Very
few people care about ITU vs ICANN or IP vs
Non-IP. "Internet governance" issues are so
obscure even tech reporters rarely get them
right. No politicians understand this stuff and
9 out of 10 won't accept some geeks educating
them. As our board member Pepper (bcc'd) often
says, "DC doesn't understand anything that won't
fit on a bumper sticker." </span></div>
<div style="font-family:"trebuchet
ms",sans-serif"><span
style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif"><br>
</span></div>
<div style="font-family:"trebuchet
ms",sans-serif"><span
style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif">
We need to take a simple, clear position that
non-experts will respond to.</span></div>
</div>
</blockquote>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>If non-experts are the focus of this exercise,
then please show it all in pictures and moving
images. What is European Non-IP ? What is Chinese New
IP? And for context, what is precisely the US battle
with China? How does Europe differ from the US? To
the extent that I understand, Europeans and Americans
wear the same clothes and speak the same English. </div>
<div> </div>
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<ul>
<li><font face="trebuchet ms, sans-serif">We
need to stop referring to "New IP," the
Chinese proposal. Instead, We should talk
about "European Non-IP and Chinese New IP."
Otherwise, our positions can easily be
confused with the U.S. battle with China and
we will immediately lose much of the
audience we need to reach to be effective.
Someone we both respect in a private note
recently said t</font>he U.S. can't lead
effectively here because it will be dismissed
as "more anti-China rhetoric" He's right. We
need to make clear this is more than a U.S.
China issue. That's why I'm putting the
Europeans first. <br>
<font face="trebuchet ms, sans-serif"><br>
Even better, we need to find a way to "frame
the issue" that will advance our goals by
getting wider support. To win this, we need
to define the debate. Very few people care
about ITU vs ICANN or IP vs Non-IP.
"Internet governance" issues are so obscure
even tech reporters rarely get them right. <br>
No politicians understand this stuff and 9
out of 10 won't accept some geeks educating
them. As our board member Pepper (bcc'd)
often says, "DC doesn't understand anything
that won't fit on a bumper sticker."</font></li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</blockquote>
<div>That is right. "frame the issue", yes, but frame
the issue in colorful pictures, for at-a-glance
understanding. </div>
<div> </div>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px
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<div>
<ul>
<li><font face="trebuchet ms, sans-serif">Currently,
the telcos and suppliers are doing a good
job convincing some very intelligent people
QoS is crucial for things like telemedicine
and autonomous cars. (The best telecom
economist in DC, for example.) It also
appears obvious to a non-expert that better
network control would bring down costs. I
think those are dead wrong, but people are
echoing the arguments. How do we answer
them?</font></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div style="font-family:"trebuchet
ms",sans-serif"><br>
</div>
<div style="font-family:"trebuchet
ms",sans-serif">For example, I'm writing this
as the "<b>Telcos want to take over the Internet
and charge more.</b>" </div>
</div>
</blockquote>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>+1 (that would be an excellent way of reaching the
common man and the non-technical policy makers.) Lynn
St-Amour usually explained it by contrasting the way
the Internet works with Cable-Telecom pricing model. <br>
</div>
<div> </div>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px
0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid
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<div dir="ltr">
<div style="font-family:"trebuchet
ms",sans-serif">Also, the complexity will
make the system too expensive That's not quite
good enough. I care about these issues as they
affect the cost of access, particularly for the
less affluent. </div>
</div>
</blockquote>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>Pricing 'Plan's ? 'bundles' ? Monthly minimum ?
Connectivity or 'Air' time charges ? Value Added
Service Charges ? Premium Services? </div>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px
0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid
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<div dir="ltr">
<div style="font-family:"trebuchet
ms",sans-serif"><br>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<ul>
<li><font face="trebuchet ms, sans-serif">We
need multiple participants at ITU and
ETSI. At the first meeting of FG2030 in
New York, there were something like 20
from China and maybe half a dozen from the
U.S. and a similar number from Europe.
After the New York meeting, the ratio
probably got worse. Hamadoun at the 2014
Plenipot publicly urged Kathy to send more
people.</font> </li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</blockquote>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px
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<div dir="ltr">
<div>
<div>
<ul>
<li><br>
<font face="trebuchet ms, sans-serif">Incidentally,
at that meeting I was the only person to
raise anything beyond technical issues
like how to deliver holograms. Brazil and
India then backed my proposal, that one of
the "use cases" for 6G in FG2030 should be
delivering systems inexpensive enough for
everyone. </font><br>
<font face="trebuchet ms, sans-serif">ITU
needs civil society and actively </font>encouraged
us. ETSI was very positive about ISOC in a
private conversation.<br>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</blockquote>
<div> </div>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px
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<div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>We lose if this is perceived as U.S. and
allies, especially if Europe is split.
Remember, at least 65% of the Internet (by
almost everyone's definition except AS) is
not in the US and allies. The BRICS by most
measures now have more connections than the
U.S. and Western Europe combined. Our work
on this should visibly come from a group
with Africans and Asians prominent. Our
board members Olga Cavalli (Argentina) and
Walid Al-Saqaf (Yemen) have the right
experience. India now has 400 million 4G
connections, more than the U.S. has people.
They would be a crucial swing. I can think
of an extremely eloquent Indian advocate for
Free Software but I think the
recommendations should come from our Indian
chapters. <br>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</blockquote>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>India can be a great ally, if some one can speak to
India in good, clean English that the phone companies
are trying to impress Governments everywhere with rosy
jargon. </div>
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<div>
<div>
<ul>
<li><br>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
<div style="font-family:"trebuchet
ms",sans-serif">
<div><br>
</div>
<div><br>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<br>
<div class="gmail_quote">
<div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Wed, Apr 29,
2020 at 11:59 AM Olaf Kolkman via
Chapter-delegates <<a
href="mailto:chapter-delegates@elists.isoc.org"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">chapter-delegates@elists.isoc.org</a>>
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px
0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid
rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
<div>
<div style="font-family:sans-serif">
<div style="white-space:normal">
<p dir="auto">Colleagues</p>
<p dir="auto">There were some requests for a
public and archived space for discussion
of this paper. We set up a list that
doesn’t require ISOC membership to discuss
this paper (and potential future
discussion papers).</p>
<p dir="auto">Hence a friendly amendment to
the text below:</p>
<p dir="auto">We welcome any feedback on “An
analysis of the “New IP” proposal to the
ITU-T”. Contact the authors directly using
<a
href="mailto:newIP-discussion-paper@isoc.org"
style="color:rgb(57,131,196)"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">newIP-discussion-paper@isoc.org</a>
or post to the <a
href="mailto:discussion-papers@elists.isoc.org"
style="color:rgb(57,131,196)"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">discussion-papers@elists.isoc.org</a>
mailing list, which is public and
archived.</p>
<p dir="auto">—Olaf</p>
<p dir="auto">On 28 Apr 2020, at 10:22, Olaf
Kolkman wrote:</p>
<blockquote style="border-left:2px solid
rgb(119,119,119);color:rgb(119,119,119);margin:0px
0px 5px;padding-left:5px">
<p dir="auto">Dear Colleagues,</p>
<p dir="auto">With the usual cross-post
apologies[*].</p>
<p dir="auto">In the run up to the ITU
World Telecommunication Standardization
Assembly (WTSA-20) later this year there
has been some discussion about a
proposal called the “New IP”. It is
positioned as a top-down architecture to
solve a number of use cases that are
currently been developed in the ITU-T’s
Future Network 2030 Focus Group.</p>
<p dir="auto">The Internet Society is
carefully following the developments in
the run-up to WTSA-20. We are trying to
understand if and how the New IP works
with the Internet as we know it, if it
actually solves problems that cannot be
solved in the Internet, and, if the
ITU-T is developing standards, where
other standards development
organizations (SDOs) have change
control.</p>
<p dir="auto">In order to get a sense of
the environment we commissioned a
discussion paper, <a
href="https://www.internetsociety.org/resources/doc/2020/discussion-paper-an-analysis-of-the-new-ip-proposal-to-the-itu-t/"
style="color:rgb(119,119,119)"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">“An
analysis of the ‘New IP’</a> proposal
to the ITU-T.” The paper helps inform us
and the broader community whilst the
public debate around these proposals
shapes up. It also aims to inform and
shape the discussion from the Internet’s
Society’s perspective. Eventually the
debate around it will inform our
position and the potential further
evolution of the discussion paper
itself. Note that the paper documents
the Internet Society’s emerging opinion,
but does not represent a final Internet
Society position. Instead, we intend it
as a means to gather information and
insight from our community on the topic.</p>
<p dir="auto">We welcome any feedback on <a
href="https://www.internetsociety.org/resources/doc/2020/discussion-paper-an-analysis-of-the-new-ip-proposal-to-the-itu-t/"
style="color:rgb(119,119,119)"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">“An
analysis of the ‘New IP’</a> via the
email address <a
href="mailto:NewIP-Discussion-Paper@isoc.org"
style="color:rgb(119,119,119)"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">NewIP-Discussion-Paper@isoc.org</a></p>
<p dir="auto">—Olaf Kolkman</p>
<p dir="auto">[*] This mail has been sent
to various relevant mailing lists and
featured as a blog on the Internet
Society website.</p>
<hr style="background:linear-gradient(to
right,rgb(204,204,204),rgb(51,51,51),rgb(204,204,204))
rgb(51,51,51);border:0px;height:1px"
height="1">
<p dir="auto">Olaf M. Kolkman Tweets as:
@kolkman<br>
Principal - Internet Technology, Policy,
and Advocacy<br>
Internet Society <a
href="https://www.internetsociety.org"
style="color:rgb(119,119,119)"
target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.internetsociety.org</a></p>
<hr style="background:linear-gradient(to
right,rgb(204,204,204),rgb(51,51,51),rgb(204,204,204))
rgb(51,51,51);border:0px;height:1px"
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</blockquote>
</div>
<hr>
<table
style="border-collapse:collapse;width:80%"
border="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width:50%">Olaf M. Kolkman</td>
<td style="width:50%"><br>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width:50%">Principal -
Internet Technology, Policy, and
Advocacy</td>
<td style="width:50%"><br>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width:50%"><a
href="https://www.internetsociety.org/"
target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">Internet
Society</a></td>
<td style="width:50%" align="right">Tweets
as: <a
href="https://twitter.com/@kolkman"
target="_blank"
moz-do-not-send="true">@kolkman</a></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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<div dir="ltr">Editor, <a
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<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">_______________________________________________
As an Internet Society Chapter Officer you are automatically subscribed
to this list, which is regularly synchronized with the Internet Society Chapter Portal (AMS):
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://admin.internetsociety.org/622619/User/Login">https://admin.internetsociety.org/622619/User/Login</a>
View the Internet Society Code of Conduct: <a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.internetsociety.org/become-a-member/code-of-conduct/">https://www.internetsociety.org/become-a-member/code-of-conduct/</a>
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<pre class="moz-signature" cols="86">--
Paul Brooks
Chair, Internet Australia
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:paul.brooks@internet.org.au">paul.brooks@internet.org.au</a>
mobile +61414366605
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.internet.org.au">https://www.internet.org.au</a></pre>
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