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    <div class="moz-cite-prefix">Let me take a Devils Advocate position
      for a moment, preaching to the converted...</div>
    <div class="moz-cite-prefix"><br>
    </div>
    <div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 16/07/2020 9:10 am, Dave Burstein
      via Chapter-delegates wrote:</div>
    <blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:CAAUuzMTp+50QHQR9-be6fojrJmraXMa-pfTuCqZ_=GXaixZkGg@mail.gmail.com">
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          <div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:trebuchet
            ms,sans-serif">But what happens if air traffic control in
            Hamburg (on DT's network) wants to coordinate with ATC in
            Lyon, on Orange/FT. There's no way today to guarantee
            performance across networks, although the IEFT has long had
            solutions. The same problem occurs with multi-player Pokemon
            Go when one player is on DT and the second on Vodafone.</div>
          <div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:trebuchet
            ms,sans-serif"><br>
          </div>
          <div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:trebuchet
            ms,sans-serif">To solve that problem, the telcos want to
            (gradually) dump TCP-IP in favor of a tightly controlled
            "deterministic network." TCP-IP has proven its ability to
            adapt and scale. I think the efficiency claims will not be
            realized and the cost much higher. In theoretical
            discussions in standards, the new system works perfectly. I
            live in the real world. <br>
          </div>
        </div>
      </div>
    </blockquote>
    <p>Dave - are we forgetting the impact of the general public user,
      and application deployers, and 'the market' inertia in all this? <br>
    </p>
    <p>We - and 'they' - used to have such a deterministic network
      system. It was called ATM. Before that we also had a deterministic
      network system - clear channel SDH/SONET transmission services.
      For a while there were parallel global and national ATM backbones
      and IP backbones. There were IP-over-ATM backbones which were
      supposed to provide determinism and time-base slicing. There were
      'ATM Switched Virtual Circuits' that never actually switched in
      practice. Over time the Internet and IP became dominant. Why?</p>
    <p> ATM commercial services didn't die off because they were
      inherently technically inferior (although they were), they died
      off due to lack of customer demand, which lead to a lack of
      revenue. ATM gear was more expensive, services were more expensive
      and inflexible, and actual 'deterministic' services even more so -
      the user-base voted with their feet and wallets and ignored
      'proper deterministic' expensive networks in favour of those
      good-enough-in-practice more flexible cheaper systems. It didn't
      matter how 'superior' it was touted, nobody wants to expend big
      funds building infrastructure that has no customer demand.<br>
    </p>
    <blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:CAAUuzMTp+50QHQR9-be6fojrJmraXMa-pfTuCqZ_=GXaixZkGg@mail.gmail.com">
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          <div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:trebuchet
            ms,sans-serif"> TCP-IP will gradually be replaced by an
            alternative that is designed for QoS/network slicing because
            the carriers believe they will be paid for SLAs and
            guaranteed performance. This is desired by security agencies
            and the carriers think they can sell it to others. They
            smell $billions and intend to push it through. Like
            everything else in telecom, the Chinese will be the first to
            a large build, but Telefonica, DT and others intend to move
            forward.</div>
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            ms,sans-serif"><br>
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        <div>
          <div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:"trebuchet
            ms",sans-serif">
            It will take at least 3 years for this to become practical
            to deploy and more likely 5-7. </div>
        </div>
      </div>
    </blockquote>
    <p>There is now an enormous installed base of IP-based applications
      and systems, developers who understand how to build applications
      that communicate with IP, investment in codebase that relies on
      sockets, ports, IP addresses and name resolution - heck, we
      haven't been able to replace IPv4 with IPv6 in *two decades*, and
      thats without any concerted pushback. For anything to be deployed
      inside a decade, it will need to be standardised, ratified, built
      into routers, debugged, gather commercial acceptance, AND have
      some form of translation/convergence shim invented so that three
      decades of operating systems, services, browsers, chat apps etc
      don't need to be thrown out the window. Whatever comes out it
      won't 'kill off TCP/IP' until a decade after it is built into
      native Windows, Linux, IOS and Android drivers AND all the
      applications people use today. Otherwise, whatever 'they' invent
      will end up being an expensive set of deterministic
      switched-virtual-circuit layer1/layer2 network, on which 'the
      market' and customers will run TCP/IP as an overlay, because
      nobody in user-land will want to re-invent the application wheels,
      or the entire ecosystem that it supports.</p>
    <p>Carriers might believe they will be paid extra $$$ and $billions
      for SLAs and guaranteed performance, but beliefs don't make it so
      - we can point to decades of actual measured customer behaviour,
      from the failure of ATM to why so few customers ever buy 'business
      grade' services even when they are available, to why so many
      people take slower roads to bypass a highway with tolls.<br>
    </p>
    <p>One thing I know - we won't 'win' if we frame our arguments as
      'defending TCP/IP and the Internet'. The moment we talk of
      'defending' something, others will wonder why we're trying so hard
      to defend something if it is so obviously superior. We won't 'win'
      if we focus on better technicals, or more open development
      methods. We won't 'win' if we treat it as a adversarial 'fight'.<br>
    </p>
    <p>The best argument I've found against the 'telehealth needs
      guaranteed QOS networks' is to quietly ask the person whether,
      even if such a network existed, they would be happy going under
      the anaesthetic on the table knowing the surgeon was on the other
      side of the country, given how frequently their mobile phone drops
      out and how often she reads about networks being taken offline by
      trench-diggers - and how comfortable she thought health insurers
      and courts would be with a 'QOS guarantee certificate' from the
      carrier. And how comfortable the network owners will be if
      telehealth is the only lonely use-case for the expensive shiny
      network, because everything else that doesn't need the QOS
      guarantees is on a cheaper parallel competing network.<br>
    </p>
    <p>We *may* head it off, if we can highlight that all history shows
      that proper determinism is uncommercial - the extra $billions they
      dream of isn't there - even if they build something out of non-IP,
      unless it is priced at Internet commercials or cheaper, it is
      likely to be an expensive, embarrassing white-elephant with no
      customers.</p>
    <p> We *may* prevail if we approach it as 'helping them to avoid
      their embarrassment'. Risk of embarrassing/noncommercial expensive
      failure is a better motivator for no-progress and for programs
      being quietly abandoned than the prospect of a fight.</p>
    <p>Best regards,</p>
    <p>Paul.<br>
    </p>
    <p><br>
    </p>
    <blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:CAAUuzMTp+50QHQR9-be6fojrJmraXMa-pfTuCqZ_=GXaixZkGg@mail.gmail.com">
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          <div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:"trebuchet
            ms",sans-serif">But if we think this is not a desirable
            long term future for the net, we have to be very public and
            make the issues clear. Olaf's paper is sensible but oblique,
            and our beliefs are invisible in places like Focus Group
            2030 and the other places - especially 3GPP & ETSI -
            where decisions are being made. (I sometimes speak to it,
            but have to earn a living and haven't had much time.)</div>
          <div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:"trebuchet
            ms",sans-serif"><br>
          </div>
          <div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:"trebuchet
            ms",sans-serif">Accurate information is not enough to
            win a political battle with literally $trillions of
            companies and their governments are on the other side.</div>
          <div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:"trebuchet
            ms",sans-serif"><br>
          </div>
          <div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:"trebuchet
            ms",sans-serif">If this matters, we can and must do
            much more.</div>
          <br>
        </div>
        <div><br>
        </div>
        <br>
        <div class="gmail_quote">
          <div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Wed, Jul 15, 2020 at 9:29
            AM sivasubramanian muthusamy <<a
              href="mailto:6.internet@gmail.com" moz-do-not-send="true">6.internet@gmail.com</a>>
            wrote:<br>
          </div>
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              <div class="gmail_quote">
                <div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Thu, Apr 30, 2020
                  at 4:46 AM Dave Burstein via Chapter-delegates <<a
                    href="mailto:chapter-delegates@elists.isoc.org"
                    target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">chapter-delegates@elists.isoc.org</a>>
                  wrote:<br>
                </div>
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                    <div style="font-family:"trebuchet
                      ms",sans-serif">Olaf</div>
                    <div style="font-family:"trebuchet
                      ms",sans-serif"><br>
                    </div>
                    <div style="font-family:"trebuchet
                      ms",sans-serif">We agree on the main issues
                      here, but we need to do a much more effective job
                      to win here. </div>
                    <div style="font-family:"trebuchet
                      ms",sans-serif"><br>
                    </div>
                    <div style="font-family:"trebuchet
                      ms",sans-serif">tl/dr unless the issues are
                      important to you.</div>
                    <div style="font-family:"trebuchet
                      ms",sans-serif"><br>
                    </div>
                    <div style="font-family:"trebuchet
                      ms",sans-serif"> I learned how to win policy
                      issues through 20 years watching silver tongues
                      like AT&T's legendary lobbyist Jim Cicconi.
                      They approach the battle by researching carefully
                      "what arguments will persuade the people we need
                      to reach and they will believe." On telco control,
                      which is the issue here, we have great pocketbook
                      issues you've noted in your paper. Complexity and
                      control drive up costs enormously. That's a great
                      reason to stick with IP - it does a brilliant job
                      adapting. Bob and Vint work is extraordinary, not
                      just historic.</div>
                    <div style="font-family:"trebuchet
                      ms",sans-serif"><br>
                    </div>
                    <div style="font-family:"trebuchet
                      ms",sans-serif">   Something like this needs
                      support from far more people than might be
                      persuaded by <u>anything</u> we might say about
                      governance. <span
                        style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif">Very
                        few people care about ITU vs ICANN or IP vs
                        Non-IP. "Internet governance" issues are so
                        obscure even tech reporters rarely get them
                        right. No politicians understand this stuff and
                        9 out of 10 won't accept some geeks educating
                        them. As our board member Pepper (bcc'd) often
                        says, "DC doesn't understand anything that won't
                        fit on a bumper sticker."  </span></div>
                    <div style="font-family:"trebuchet
                      ms",sans-serif"><span
                        style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif"><br>
                      </span></div>
                    <div style="font-family:"trebuchet
                      ms",sans-serif"><span
                        style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif"> 
                          We need to take a simple, clear position that
                        non-experts will respond to.</span></div>
                  </div>
                </blockquote>
                <div><br>
                </div>
                <div>If non-experts are the focus of this exercise, 
                  then please show it all in pictures and moving
                  images.  What is European Non-IP ? What is Chinese New
                  IP? And for context, what is precisely the US battle
                  with China?  How does Europe differ from the US? To
                  the extent that I understand, Europeans and Americans
                  wear the same clothes and speak the same English. </div>
                <div> </div>
                <blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px
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                  <div dir="ltr">
                    <div>
                      <ul>
                        <li><font face="trebuchet ms, sans-serif">We
                            need to stop referring to "New IP," the
                            Chinese proposal. Instead, We should talk
                            about "European Non-IP and Chinese New IP."
                            Otherwise, our positions can easily be
                            confused with the U.S. battle with China and
                            we will immediately lose much of the
                            audience we need to reach to be effective.
                            Someone we both respect in a private note
                            recently said t</font>he U.S.  can't lead
                          effectively here because it will be dismissed
                          as "more anti-China rhetoric" He's right. We
                          need to make clear this is more than a U.S.
                          China issue. That's why I'm putting the
                          Europeans first. <br>
                          <font face="trebuchet ms, sans-serif"><br>
                            Even better, we need to find a way to "frame
                            the issue" that will advance our goals by
                            getting wider support. To win this, we need
                            to define the debate.  Very few people care
                            about ITU vs ICANN or IP vs Non-IP.
                            "Internet governance" issues are so obscure
                            even tech reporters rarely get them right. <br>
                            No politicians understand this stuff and 9
                            out of 10 won't accept some geeks educating
                            them. As our board member Pepper (bcc'd)
                            often says, "DC doesn't understand anything
                            that won't fit on a bumper sticker."</font></li>
                      </ul>
                    </div>
                  </div>
                </blockquote>
                <div>That is right.  "frame the issue", yes, but frame
                  the issue in colorful pictures, for at-a-glance
                  understanding. </div>
                <div> </div>
                <blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px
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                    <div>
                      <ul>
                        <li><font face="trebuchet ms, sans-serif">Currently,
                            the telcos and suppliers are doing a good
                            job convincing some very intelligent people
                            QoS is crucial for things like telemedicine
                            and autonomous cars. (The best telecom
                            economist in DC, for example.) It also
                            appears obvious to a non-expert that better
                            network control would bring down costs. I
                            think those are dead wrong, but people are
                            echoing the arguments. How do we answer
                            them?</font></li>
                      </ul>
                    </div>
                    <div style="font-family:"trebuchet
                      ms",sans-serif"><br>
                    </div>
                    <div style="font-family:"trebuchet
                      ms",sans-serif">For example, I'm writing this
                      as the "<b>Telcos want to take over the Internet
                        and charge more.</b>" </div>
                  </div>
                </blockquote>
                <div><br>
                </div>
                <div>+1 (that would be an excellent way of reaching the
                  common man and the non-technical policy makers.)  Lynn
                  St-Amour usually explained it by contrasting the way
                  the Internet works with Cable-Telecom pricing model. <br>
                </div>
                <div> </div>
                <blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px
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                    <div style="font-family:"trebuchet
                      ms",sans-serif">Also, the complexity will
                      make the system too expensive  That's not quite
                      good enough. I care about these issues as they
                      affect the cost of access, particularly for the
                      less affluent. </div>
                  </div>
                </blockquote>
                <div><br>
                </div>
                <div>Pricing 'Plan's ?   'bundles' ?  Monthly minimum ? 
                  Connectivity or 'Air' time charges ?  Value Added
                  Service Charges ?  Premium Services? </div>
                <blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px
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                    </div>
                    <div>
                      <div>
                        <ul>
                          <li><font face="trebuchet ms, sans-serif">We
                              need multiple participants at ITU and
                              ETSI. At the first meeting of FG2030 in
                              New York, there were something like 20
                              from China and maybe half a dozen from the
                              U.S. and a similar number from Europe.
                              After the New York meeting, the ratio
                              probably got worse. Hamadoun at the 2014
                              Plenipot publicly urged Kathy to send more
                              people.</font> </li>
                        </ul>
                      </div>
                    </div>
                  </div>
                </blockquote>
                <blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px
                  0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid
                  rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
                  <div dir="ltr">
                    <div>
                      <div>
                        <ul>
                          <li><br>
                            <font face="trebuchet ms, sans-serif">Incidentally,
                              at that meeting I was the only person to
                              raise anything beyond technical issues
                              like how to deliver holograms. Brazil and
                              India then backed my proposal, that one of
                              the "use cases" for 6G in FG2030 should be
                              delivering systems inexpensive enough for
                              everyone. </font><br>
                            <font face="trebuchet ms, sans-serif">ITU
                              needs civil society and actively </font>encouraged
                            us. ETSI was very positive about ISOC in a
                            private conversation.<br>
                          </li>
                        </ul>
                      </div>
                    </div>
                  </div>
                </blockquote>
                <div> </div>
                <blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px
                  0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid
                  rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
                  <div dir="ltr">
                    <div>
                      <div>
                        <ul>
                          <li>We lose if this is perceived as U.S. and
                            allies, especially if Europe is split.
                            Remember, at least 65% of the Internet (by
                            almost everyone's definition except AS) is
                            not in the US and allies. The BRICS by most
                            measures now have more connections than the
                            U.S. and Western Europe combined. Our work
                            on this should visibly come from a group
                            with Africans and Asians prominent. Our
                            board members Olga Cavalli (Argentina)  and
                            Walid Al-Saqaf (Yemen) have the right
                            experience. India now has 400 million 4G
                            connections, more than the U.S. has people.
                            They would be a crucial swing. I can think
                            of an extremely eloquent Indian advocate for
                            Free Software but I think the
                            recommendations should come from our Indian
                            chapters. <br>
                          </li>
                        </ul>
                      </div>
                    </div>
                  </div>
                </blockquote>
                <div><br>
                </div>
                <div>India can be a great ally, if some one can speak to
                  India in good, clean English that the phone companies
                  are trying to impress Governments everywhere with rosy
                  jargon. </div>
                <blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px
                  0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid
                  rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
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                    <div>
                      <div>
                        <ul>
                          <li><br>
                          </li>
                        </ul>
                      </div>
                    </div>
                    <div style="font-family:"trebuchet
                      ms",sans-serif">
                      <div><br>
                      </div>
                      <div><br>
                      </div>
                    </div>
                  </div>
                  <br>
                  <div class="gmail_quote">
                    <div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Wed, Apr 29,
                      2020 at 11:59 AM Olaf Kolkman via
                      Chapter-delegates <<a
                        href="mailto:chapter-delegates@elists.isoc.org"
                        target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">chapter-delegates@elists.isoc.org</a>>
                      wrote:<br>
                    </div>
                    <blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px
                      0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid
                      rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
                      <div>
                        <div style="font-family:sans-serif">
                          <div style="white-space:normal">
                            <p dir="auto">Colleagues</p>
                            <p dir="auto">There were some requests for a
                              public and archived space for discussion
                              of this paper. We set up a list that
                              doesn’t require ISOC membership to discuss
                              this paper (and potential future
                              discussion papers).</p>
                            <p dir="auto">Hence a friendly amendment to
                              the text below:</p>
                            <p dir="auto">We welcome any feedback on “An
                              analysis of the “New IP” proposal to the
                              ITU-T”. Contact the authors directly using
                              <a
                                href="mailto:newIP-discussion-paper@isoc.org"
                                style="color:rgb(57,131,196)"
                                target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">newIP-discussion-paper@isoc.org</a>
                              or post to the <a
                                href="mailto:discussion-papers@elists.isoc.org"
                                style="color:rgb(57,131,196)"
                                target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">discussion-papers@elists.isoc.org</a>
                              mailing list, which is public and
                              archived.</p>
                            <p dir="auto">—Olaf</p>
                            <p dir="auto">On 28 Apr 2020, at 10:22, Olaf
                              Kolkman wrote:</p>
                            <blockquote style="border-left:2px solid
                              rgb(119,119,119);color:rgb(119,119,119);margin:0px
                              0px 5px;padding-left:5px">
                              <p dir="auto">Dear Colleagues,</p>
                              <p dir="auto">With the usual cross-post
                                apologies[*].</p>
                              <p dir="auto">In the run up to the ITU
                                World Telecommunication Standardization
                                Assembly (WTSA-20) later this year there
                                has been some discussion about a
                                proposal called the “New IP”. It is
                                positioned as a top-down architecture to
                                solve a number of use cases that are
                                currently been developed in the ITU-T’s
                                Future Network 2030 Focus Group.</p>
                              <p dir="auto">The Internet Society is
                                carefully following the developments in
                                the run-up to WTSA-20. We are trying to
                                understand if and how the New IP works
                                with the Internet as we know it, if it
                                actually solves problems that cannot be
                                solved in the Internet, and, if the
                                ITU-T is developing standards, where
                                other standards development
                                organizations (SDOs) have change
                                control.</p>
                              <p dir="auto">In order to get a sense of
                                the environment we commissioned a
                                discussion paper, <a
href="https://www.internetsociety.org/resources/doc/2020/discussion-paper-an-analysis-of-the-new-ip-proposal-to-the-itu-t/"
                                  style="color:rgb(119,119,119)"
                                  target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">“An
                                  analysis of the ‘New IP’</a> proposal
                                to the ITU-T.” The paper helps inform us
                                and the broader community whilst the
                                public debate around these proposals
                                shapes up. It also aims to inform and
                                shape the discussion from the Internet’s
                                Society’s perspective. Eventually the
                                debate around it will inform our
                                position and the potential further
                                evolution of the discussion paper
                                itself. Note that the paper documents
                                the Internet Society’s emerging opinion,
                                but does not represent a final Internet
                                Society position. Instead, we intend it
                                as a means to gather information and
                                insight from our community on the topic.</p>
                              <p dir="auto">We welcome any feedback on <a
href="https://www.internetsociety.org/resources/doc/2020/discussion-paper-an-analysis-of-the-new-ip-proposal-to-the-itu-t/"
                                  style="color:rgb(119,119,119)"
                                  target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">“An
                                  analysis of the ‘New IP’</a> via the
                                email address <a
                                  href="mailto:NewIP-Discussion-Paper@isoc.org"
                                  style="color:rgb(119,119,119)"
                                  target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">NewIP-Discussion-Paper@isoc.org</a></p>
                              <p dir="auto">—Olaf Kolkman</p>
                              <p dir="auto">[*] This mail has been sent
                                to various relevant mailing lists and
                                featured as a blog on the Internet
                                Society website.</p>
                              <hr style="background:linear-gradient(to
                                right,rgb(204,204,204),rgb(51,51,51),rgb(204,204,204))
                                rgb(51,51,51);border:0px;height:1px"
                                height="1">
                              <p dir="auto">Olaf M. Kolkman Tweets as:
                                @kolkman<br>
                                Principal - Internet Technology, Policy,
                                and Advocacy<br>
                                Internet Society <a
                                  href="https://www.internetsociety.org"
                                  style="color:rgb(119,119,119)"
                                  target="_blank" moz-do-not-send="true">https://www.internetsociety.org</a></p>
                              <hr style="background:linear-gradient(to
                                right,rgb(204,204,204),rgb(51,51,51),rgb(204,204,204))
                                rgb(51,51,51);border:0px;height:1px"
                                height="1">
                            </blockquote>
                          </div>
                          <hr>
                          <table
                            style="border-collapse:collapse;width:80%"
                            border="0">
                            <tbody>
                              <tr>
                                <td style="width:50%">Olaf M. Kolkman</td>
                                <td style="width:50%"><br>
                                </td>
                              </tr>
                              <tr>
                                <td style="width:50%">Principal -
                                  Internet Technology, Policy, and
                                  Advocacy</td>
                                <td style="width:50%"><br>
                                </td>
                              </tr>
                              <tr>
                                <td style="width:50%"><a
                                    href="https://www.internetsociety.org/"
                                    target="_blank"
                                    moz-do-not-send="true">Internet
                                    Society</a></td>
                                <td style="width:50%" align="right">Tweets
                                  as: <a
                                    href="https://twitter.com/@kolkman"
                                    target="_blank"
                                    moz-do-not-send="true">@kolkman</a></td>
                              </tr>
                            </tbody>
                          </table>
                          <hr>
                        </div>
                      </div>
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                  As an Internet Society Chapter Officer you are
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                  to this list, which is regularly synchronized with the
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As an Internet Society Chapter Officer you are automatically subscribed
to this list, which is regularly synchronized with the Internet Society Chapter Portal (AMS):
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</pre>
    </blockquote>
    <p><br>
    </p>
    <pre class="moz-signature" cols="86">-- 
Paul Brooks
Chair, Internet Australia
<a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="mailto:paul.brooks@internet.org.au">paul.brooks@internet.org.au</a>
mobile +61414366605
<a class="moz-txt-link-freetext" href="https://www.internet.org.au">https://www.internet.org.au</a></pre>
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