<div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><br><div><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_signature" data-smartmail="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><br></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Thu, Jul 16, 2020 at 4:02 PM Christian <<a href="mailto:cdel@firsthand.net">cdel@firsthand.net</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
<div>
<p>Dave, <br>
</p>
<p><br>
</p>
<p>Thank you for this call in the wilderness. Olaf may well need
reinforcements. ISOC could now gather IETF and W3C and attract the
many others who are developing decentralised protocols and
services </p></div></blockquote><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div><p>to make a very big noise in the policy sphere </p></div></blockquote><div>or whisper in the right ears... </div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div><p>to correct
these attempts to game the global economy and societies.</p>
<p>As far as I know these are still "proposals". That is a Question?
They will as you imply add considerable costs and the performance
assumptions do look very dubious. But we as chapters need clear
presentations that are geared to put considerable public political
pressure on policy mandarins not to go down the
oligopolist/monopolistic man in the middle market capture routes
of the bad old days.<br>
</p>
<p>As Olaf has commented IETF is shifting with new opportunities in
the transport layer anyway (with QUIC for instance). Henning is
someone to bring in too.<br>
</p>
<p>C<br>
</p>
<div>On 16/07/2020 00:10, Dave Burstein via
Chapter-delegates wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite">
<div dir="ltr">
<div dir="ltr">
<div style="font-family:"trebuchet ms",sans-serif">An update here. </div>
<div style="font-family:"trebuchet ms",sans-serif"><br>
</div>
<div style="font-family:"trebuchet ms",sans-serif">In the 1980's and 1990's, the phone companies
failed to dominate the Internet. Ask Vint or Dave Farber
about the "protocol wars." Many of us talked about the
battle between the Bellheads and the Netheads. </div>
<div style="font-family:"trebuchet ms",sans-serif"><br>
</div>
<div style="font-family:"trebuchet ms",sans-serif">It's back, I believe, although it's the
European and Asian telcos leading the way, with the
Americans quietly cheering them on. I believe that's the
purpose of "deterministic networking," which just was
incorporated by the key ITU Focus Group 2030, defining 6G.*
2030, where I am a member, has included the proposals in the
final "architecture document" that will become the IMT
definition of 6G and define the future of the Internet.
Europe's Non-IP and ITU deterministic networking are moving
forward. Contrary to <i>FT</i> and the handful of other
press reports, this isn't about China taking over the
Internet. </div>
<div style="font-family:"trebuchet ms",sans-serif"><br>
</div>
<div style="font-family:"trebuchet ms",sans-serif">It's about the telcos, European and Chinese
leading, taking over to enforce Quality of Service, also
called network slicing. Cisco, Huawei, and other vendors
want to sell the more expensive gear.</div>
<div style="font-family:"trebuchet ms",sans-serif"><br>
</div>
<div style="font-family:"trebuchet ms",sans-serif">It's all about money. The telcos think they
will make hundreds of billions because Internet traffic <u>needs</u> QoS.
I, and experts like Henning Schulzrinne of Columbia, think
this highly unlikely. Our voices are drowned out.</div>
<div style="font-family:"trebuchet ms",sans-serif"><br>
</div>
<div style="font-family:"trebuchet ms",sans-serif">Slicing is already included in 3GPP 5G
standards. Deutsche Telekom believes they will be able to
guarantee high capacity, low latency service. (5G as
deployed is ~30 ms latency; the 1-10 ms latency is a fantasy
outside the lab. Don't believe the hype.)</div>
<div style="font-family:"trebuchet ms",sans-serif"><br>
</div>
<div style="font-family:"trebuchet ms",sans-serif">But what happens if air traffic control in
Hamburg (on DT's network) wants to coordinate with ATC in
Lyon, on Orange/FT. There's no way today to guarantee
performance across networks, although the IEFT has long had
solutions. The same problem occurs with multi-player Pokemon
Go when one player is on DT and the second on Vodafone.</div>
<div style="font-family:"trebuchet ms",sans-serif"><br>
</div>
<div style="font-family:"trebuchet ms",sans-serif">To solve that problem, the telcos want to
(gradually) dump TCP-IP in favor of a tightly controlled
"deterministic network." TCP-IP has proven its ability to
adapt and scale. I think the efficiency claims will not be
realized and the cost much higher. In theoretical
discussions in standards, the new system works perfectly. I
live in the real world. </div>
<div style="font-family:"trebuchet ms",sans-serif"><br>
</div>
<div style="font-family:"trebuchet ms",sans-serif"> TCP-IP will gradually be replaced by an
alternative that is designed for QoS/network slicing because
the carriers believe they will be paid for SLAs and
guaranteed performance. This is desired by security agencies
and the carriers think they can sell it to others. They
smell $billions and intend to push it through. Like
everything else in telecom, the Chinese will be the first to
a large build, but Telefonica, DT and others intend to move
forward.</div>
<div style="font-family:"trebuchet ms",sans-serif"><br>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<div>
It will take at least 3 years for this to become practical
to deploy and more likely 5-7. </div>
<br>
</div>
<div>
<div>But if we think this is not a desirable
long term future for the net, we have to be very public and
make the issues clear. Olaf's paper is sensible but oblique,
and our beliefs are invisible in places like Focus Group
2030 and the other places - especially 3GPP & ETSI -
where decisions are being made. (I sometimes speak to it,
but have to earn a living and haven't had much time.)</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>Accurate information is not enough to
win a political battle with literally $trillions of
companies and their governments are on the other side.</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>If this matters, we can and must do
much more.</div>
<br>
</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<br>
<div class="gmail_quote">
<div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Wed, Jul 15, 2020 at 9:29
AM sivasubramanian muthusamy <<a href="mailto:6.internet@gmail.com" target="_blank">6.internet@gmail.com</a>>
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
<div dir="ltr">
<div dir="ltr"><br>
<br>
</div>
<br>
<div class="gmail_quote">
<div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Thu, Apr 30, 2020
at 4:46 AM Dave Burstein via Chapter-delegates <<a href="mailto:chapter-delegates@elists.isoc.org" target="_blank">chapter-delegates@elists.isoc.org</a>>
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
<div dir="ltr">
<div>Olaf</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>We agree on the main issues
here, but we need to do a much more effective job
to win here. </div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>tl/dr unless the issues are
important to you.</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div> I learned how to win policy
issues through 20 years watching silver tongues
like AT&T's legendary lobbyist Jim Cicconi.
They approach the battle by researching carefully
"what arguments will persuade the people we need
to reach and they will believe." On telco control,
which is the issue here, we have great pocketbook
issues you've noted in your paper. Complexity and
control drive up costs enormously. That's a great
reason to stick with IP - it does a brilliant job
adapting. Bob and Vint work is extraordinary, not
just historic.</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div> Something like this needs
support from far more people than might be
persuaded by <u>anything</u> we might say about
governance. <span style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif">Very
few people care about ITU vs ICANN or IP vs
Non-IP. "Internet governance" issues are so
obscure even tech reporters rarely get them
right. No politicians understand this stuff and
9 out of 10 won't accept some geeks educating
them. As our board member Pepper (bcc'd) often
says, "DC doesn't understand anything that won't
fit on a bumper sticker." </span></div>
<div><span style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif"><br>
</span></div>
<div><span style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif">
We need to take a simple, clear position that
non-experts will respond to.</span></div>
</div>
</blockquote>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>If non-experts are the focus of this exercise,
then please show it all in pictures and moving
images. What is European Non-IP ? What is Chinese New
IP? And for context, what is precisely the US battle
with China? How does Europe differ from the US? To
the extent that I understand, Europeans and Americans
wear the same clothes and speak the same English. </div>
<div> </div>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
<div dir="ltr">
<div>
<ul>
<li><font face="trebuchet ms, sans-serif">We
need to stop referring to "New IP," the
Chinese proposal. Instead, We should talk
about "European Non-IP and Chinese New IP."
Otherwise, our positions can easily be
confused with the U.S. battle with China and
we will immediately lose much of the
audience we need to reach to be effective.
Someone we both respect in a private note
recently said t</font>he U.S. can't lead
effectively here because it will be dismissed
as "more anti-China rhetoric" He's right. We
need to make clear this is more than a U.S.
China issue. That's why I'm putting the
Europeans first. <br>
<font face="trebuchet ms, sans-serif"><br>
Even better, we need to find a way to "frame
the issue" that will advance our goals by
getting wider support. To win this, we need
to define the debate. Very few people care
about ITU vs ICANN or IP vs Non-IP.
"Internet governance" issues are so obscure
even tech reporters rarely get them right. <br>
No politicians understand this stuff and 9
out of 10 won't accept some geeks educating
them. As our board member Pepper (bcc'd)
often says, "DC doesn't understand anything
that won't fit on a bumper sticker."</font></li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</blockquote>
<div>That is right. "frame the issue", yes, but frame
the issue in colorful pictures, for at-a-glance
understanding. </div>
<div> </div>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
<div dir="ltr">
<div>
<ul>
<li><font face="trebuchet ms, sans-serif">Currently,
the telcos and suppliers are doing a good
job convincing some very intelligent people
QoS is crucial for things like telemedicine
and autonomous cars. (The best telecom
economist in DC, for example.) It also
appears obvious to a non-expert that better
network control would bring down costs. I
think those are dead wrong, but people are
echoing the arguments. How do we answer
them?</font></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>For example, I'm writing this
as the "<b>Telcos want to take over the Internet
and charge more.</b>" </div>
</div>
</blockquote>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>+1 (that would be an excellent way of reaching the
common man and the non-technical policy makers.) Lynn
St-Amour usually explained it by contrasting the way
the Internet works with Cable-Telecom pricing model. <br>
</div>
<div> </div>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
<div dir="ltr">
<div>Also, the complexity will
make the system too expensive That's not quite
good enough. I care about these issues as they
affect the cost of access, particularly for the
less affluent. </div>
</div>
</blockquote>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>Pricing 'Plan's ? 'bundles' ? Monthly minimum ?
Connectivity or 'Air' time charges ? Value Added
Service Charges ? Premium Services? </div>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
<div dir="ltr">
<div><br>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<ul>
<li><font face="trebuchet ms, sans-serif">We
need multiple participants at ITU and
ETSI. At the first meeting of FG2030 in
New York, there were something like 20
from China and maybe half a dozen from the
U.S. and a similar number from Europe.
After the New York meeting, the ratio
probably got worse. Hamadoun at the 2014
Plenipot publicly urged Kathy to send more
people.</font> </li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</blockquote>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
<div dir="ltr">
<div>
<div>
<ul>
<li><br>
<font face="trebuchet ms, sans-serif">Incidentally,
at that meeting I was the only person to
raise anything beyond technical issues
like how to deliver holograms. Brazil and
India then backed my proposal, that one of
the "use cases" for 6G in FG2030 should be
delivering systems inexpensive enough for
everyone. </font><br>
<font face="trebuchet ms, sans-serif">ITU
needs civil society and actively </font>encouraged
us. ETSI was very positive about ISOC in a
private conversation.<br>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</blockquote>
<div> </div>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
<div dir="ltr">
<div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>We lose if this is perceived as U.S. and
allies, especially if Europe is split.
Remember, at least 65% of the Internet (by
almost everyone's definition except AS) is
not in the US and allies. The BRICS by most
measures now have more connections than the
U.S. and Western Europe combined. Our work
on this should visibly come from a group
with Africans and Asians prominent. Our
board members Olga Cavalli (Argentina) and
Walid Al-Saqaf (Yemen) have the right
experience. India now has 400 million 4G
connections, more than the U.S. has people.
They would be a crucial swing. I can think
of an extremely eloquent Indian advocate for
Free Software but I think the
recommendations should come from our Indian
chapters. <br>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</blockquote>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>India can be a great ally, if some one can speak to
India in good, clean English that the phone companies
are trying to impress Governments everywhere with rosy
jargon. </div>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
<div dir="ltr">
<div>
<div>
<ul>
<li><br>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div><br>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<br>
<div class="gmail_quote">
<div dir="ltr" class="gmail_attr">On Wed, Apr 29,
2020 at 11:59 AM Olaf Kolkman via
Chapter-delegates <<a href="mailto:chapter-delegates@elists.isoc.org" target="_blank">chapter-delegates@elists.isoc.org</a>>
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
<div>
<div style="font-family:sans-serif">
<div style="white-space:normal">
<p dir="auto">Colleagues</p>
<p dir="auto">There were some requests for a
public and archived space for discussion
of this paper. We set up a list that
doesn’t require ISOC membership to discuss
this paper (and potential future
discussion papers).</p>
<p dir="auto">Hence a friendly amendment to
the text below:</p>
<p dir="auto">We welcome any feedback on “An
analysis of the “New IP” proposal to the
ITU-T”. Contact the authors directly using
<a href="mailto:newIP-discussion-paper@isoc.org" style="color:rgb(57,131,196)" target="_blank">newIP-discussion-paper@isoc.org</a>
or post to the <a href="mailto:discussion-papers@elists.isoc.org" style="color:rgb(57,131,196)" target="_blank">discussion-papers@elists.isoc.org</a>
mailing list, which is public and
archived.</p>
<p dir="auto">—Olaf</p>
<p dir="auto">On 28 Apr 2020, at 10:22, Olaf
Kolkman wrote:</p>
<blockquote style="border-left:2px solid rgb(119,119,119);color:rgb(119,119,119);margin:0px 0px 5px;padding-left:5px">
<p dir="auto">Dear Colleagues,</p>
<p dir="auto">With the usual cross-post
apologies[*].</p>
<p dir="auto">In the run up to the ITU
World Telecommunication Standardization
Assembly (WTSA-20) later this year there
has been some discussion about a
proposal called the “New IP”. It is
positioned as a top-down architecture to
solve a number of use cases that are
currently been developed in the ITU-T’s
Future Network 2030 Focus Group.</p>
<p dir="auto">The Internet Society is
carefully following the developments in
the run-up to WTSA-20. We are trying to
understand if and how the New IP works
with the Internet as we know it, if it
actually solves problems that cannot be
solved in the Internet, and, if the
ITU-T is developing standards, where
other standards development
organizations (SDOs) have change
control.</p>
<p dir="auto">In order to get a sense of
the environment we commissioned a
discussion paper, <a href="https://www.internetsociety.org/resources/doc/2020/discussion-paper-an-analysis-of-the-new-ip-proposal-to-the-itu-t/" style="color:rgb(119,119,119)" target="_blank">“An
analysis of the ‘New IP’</a> proposal
to the ITU-T.” The paper helps inform us
and the broader community whilst the
public debate around these proposals
shapes up. It also aims to inform and
shape the discussion from the Internet’s
Society’s perspective. Eventually the
debate around it will inform our
position and the potential further
evolution of the discussion paper
itself. Note that the paper documents
the Internet Society’s emerging opinion,
but does not represent a final Internet
Society position. Instead, we intend it
as a means to gather information and
insight from our community on the topic.</p>
<p dir="auto">We welcome any feedback on <a href="https://www.internetsociety.org/resources/doc/2020/discussion-paper-an-analysis-of-the-new-ip-proposal-to-the-itu-t/" style="color:rgb(119,119,119)" target="_blank">“An
analysis of the ‘New IP’</a> via the
email address <a href="mailto:NewIP-Discussion-Paper@isoc.org" style="color:rgb(119,119,119)" target="_blank">NewIP-Discussion-Paper@isoc.org</a></p>
<p dir="auto">—Olaf Kolkman</p>
<p dir="auto">[*] This mail has been sent
to various relevant mailing lists and
featured as a blog on the Internet
Society website.</p>
<hr style="background:linear-gradient(to right,rgb(204,204,204),rgb(51,51,51),rgb(204,204,204)) rgb(51,51,51);border:0px;height:1px" height="1">
<p dir="auto">Olaf M. Kolkman Tweets as:
@kolkman<br>
Principal - Internet Technology, Policy,
and Advocacy<br>
Internet Society <a href="https://www.internetsociety.org" style="color:rgb(119,119,119)" target="_blank">https://www.internetsociety.org</a></p>
<hr style="background:linear-gradient(to right,rgb(204,204,204),rgb(51,51,51),rgb(204,204,204)) rgb(51,51,51);border:0px;height:1px" height="1">
</blockquote>
</div>
<hr>
<table style="border-collapse:collapse;width:80%" border="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width:50%">Olaf M. Kolkman</td>
<td style="width:50%"><br>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width:50%">Principal -
Internet Technology, Policy, and
Advocacy</td>
<td style="width:50%"><br>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width:50%"><a href="https://www.internetsociety.org/" target="_blank">Internet
Society</a></td>
<td style="width:50%" align="right">Tweets
as: <a href="https://twitter.com/@kolkman" target="_blank">@kolkman</a></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<hr>
</div>
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<pre cols="72">--
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----------------------</pre>
</div>
</blockquote></div></div>